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With the rail out 4m, the track will play slightly tighter. This can sometimes make it more difficult for horses swooping from the back to get around the field on the turn. It often advantages horses drawn inside who can hold their position, as they cover less ground. This setup appears to favour the on-pace runners drawn in barriers 2 and 3.

The track is rated a Soft 5, which is a fair surface that shouldn't produce a significant bias. However, it will ensure a degree of stamina is required to finish the 1200m off strongly. Horses with proven form on soft or heavy ground hold an advantage. Notably, #4 Cannyworth was a dominant winner on a Heavy 8, and #8 Thanks Gorgeous placed on a Soft 6 at this track, indicating they will handle the conditions well. A moderate pace on a soft surface will make it even harder for closers to make up ground.

The 1200m start at Caulfield provides a reasonable run into the first turn, allowing horses to find their positions. However, the relatively short 367m straight often favours horses that are on-pace and can kick clear at the top of the lane. With a moderate tempo predicted, backmarkers will find it challenging to make up significant ground unless the leaders go too hard and stop.

This is a 2-Year-Old Handicap. Speed maps for two-year-olds can be less reliable as they are still developing their race craft. Inconsistent starts and mid-race manners are common, as noted in the stewards' reports for several runners here (Autumn Mystery, Miewa, Shystar). The small field size of eight runners means horses are less likely to encounter severe traffic issues, but a moderate pace could lead to a highly tactical, sprint-home affair.