Vobis Gold Stayers

With the rail out 4m, the track will play fairly. This position can sometimes favour horses on-pace who can save ground around the turns. For a backmarker like #6 Chihuly, it means he will have to cover slightly more ground if he is forced to loop the field from the 600m mark. The inside lanes on a Soft 5 should still be in good condition, meaning #4 Midnight Glow's inside draw is a distinct advantage.

The track is rated a Soft (5), which will suit the majority of the field who have proven form with give in the ground. Both #2 Jimmy The Bear and #4 Midnight Glow are recent winners on soft going. The surface will ensure that while the early pace may be slow, the finish will be a true test of stamina, and horses will need to be strong through the line. It will blunt the turn-of-foot of any runners who are purely dry-track specialists, ensuring proven wet-trackers have an edge.

The 2400m start at Caulfield provides a long run down the side of the course, allowing ample time for the small field to find their positions without undue pressure. The staying distance itself naturally discourages an aggressive early pace, reinforcing the prediction of a moderate tempo. The long Caulfield straight typically gives swoopers their chance, but in a slowly run race, it can be very difficult to make up significant ground on leaders who have had an easy time in front and can quicken off the bend. The race will be a test of tactical acceleration as much as pure stamina.

As an Open Set Weights with Penalties race, the conditions favour the class horse, #2 Jimmy The Bear, who carries the top weight of 59.0kg as a result of his high rating and superb form. In a small field, tactical advantages are amplified, and a class jockey like Ben Melham can control the race on the best horse. The small field size reduces the probability of significant traffic issues, although getting boxed in a slowly run race remains a risk for those on the fence.