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Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 5 at Caulfield
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
The map is loaded with genuine speed influences, creating a high-pressure scenario. There are at least three designated leaders, ensuring a contested tempo from the outset. The pressure is applied from both inside and outside barriers, which almost guarantees no single horse will get an easy time in front.
🏃♂️Likely Positions In-Running
🥇Leaders
The lead will be hotly contested. #10 Foxenberg (2) and #13 Quoin (11) are the most likely to eyeball each other for the top spot. #6 Brutalina (1) will be right there, either holding the fence in the lead or taking the trail directly behind.
🏃On-Pace/Handy
This is the ideal position in this race. #8 It's A Yes (4) maps to get a perfect run in the "box seat" or one-out, one-back. #4 Electric Tommy (13) will be working to find a spot outside the leaders. #5 Bossy Benita (8) will likely settle midfield with cover, while #7 Noetzie (7) will also push forward to be in this group.
🏃♂️Midfield
#12 Dobkins (6) naturally settles in this position and should find a spot with cover. #11 Damehood (9), who can be slowly away, will likely find herself in the back half of the midfield pack.
🐌Backmarkers
#1 Salsa Fellow (3) and #9 Behaviour (10) are the two designated closers. They will settle at or near the rear of the field and rely on the strong pace to tire out the leaders, enabling their late runs.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
With the rail out 4m, the track can sometimes play slightly off the fence, especially in softer going as the day progresses. This could potentially negate the advantage of an inside draw if that strip of ground chops out. It may provide a slight advantage to horses peeling out to the middle of the track in the straight, favouring strong finishers who can make their runs down the crown of the course.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
The Soft (5) rating provides a fair racing surface but will still require genuine fitness. It will place extra emphasis on stamina, particularly given the anticipated strong pace. Horses that have to burn energy early from wide gates will find it even harder to finish their races off. Any runners with proven form on rain-affected ground are at a distinct advantage. The conditions will ensure this is a genuinely run race where the strongest horse prevails.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The 1200m start at Caulfield provides a fair run down the side of the course into the sweeping home turn. This configuration gives horses drawn wide, like #13 Quoin and #4 Electric Tommy, a chance to press forward and cross if they have sufficient speed. However, the long turn and uphill run in the straight is notoriously testing. Any horse that over-exerts in the early speed battle will be extremely vulnerable late. The predicted strong tempo will make this a true test of stamina at 1200m.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
As an Open Handicap for 3-year-olds, this race features a field of progressive, in-form gallopers. The handicap nature, with weights from 58.0kg down to 51.0kg, is a critical factor. The light weights on speed horses like #13 Quoin (51.0kg) and #4 Electric Tommy (52.0kg) encourage aggressive forward tactics from their wide barriers, directly contributing to the high-pressure speed map.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
This race projects to be run at a strong, potentially unsustainable, tempo. The pressure from inside (#10 Foxenberg, #6 Brutalina) and outside (#13 Quoin, #4 Electric Tommy) will ensure a true contest. This setup is tactically disadvantageous for the leaders and creates a perfect scenario for on-pace runners who can secure a soft run with cover just behind the speed battle. The race will likely be won by a horse with a sharp turn of foot who has been able to conserve energy before being produced in the straight. Backmarkers will have their chance if the leaders completely fold.
✅Most Advantaged
#8 It's A Yes (4) This horse is mapped to get the run of the race. From barrier 4, Beau Mertens can position him perfectly in fourth or fifth on the rail, trailing the speed battle. He will save ground on the turn and be presented with a run as the leaders tire, giving him the last shot at them. His previous form on soft ground is a plus.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#13 Quoin (11) and #10 Foxenberg (2). These two appear destined to engage in a speed duel that could be detrimental to both their chances. Quoin must work hard from the wide gate, while Foxenberg will have to absorb that pressure from the inside. Both are at high risk of being "sitting ducks" for the closers in the final 200m.
💰Betting Considerations
The analysis strongly suggests opposing the leaders due to the high-pressure map. The value lies with horses that can take a sit.
- Primary Strategy: Focus on horses mapping to sit just off the speed. #8 It's A Yes (4) is the ideal map horse. #5 Bossy Benita (8) with Craig Williams aboard is another prime candidate to get a winning run from midfield.
- Exotic Value: The backmarkers #1 Salsa Fellow (3) and #9 Behaviour (10) become strong trifecta and first-four contenders. The fast pace is exactly what they need, and if they get clear running, they can storm over the top of the tiring leaders.
- Risk Assessment: Be wary of taking a short price on any of the designated leaders like #10 Foxenberg, #13 Quoin, or #6 Brutalina. The race shape is firmly against them.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Salsa Fellow
Electric Tommy
Bossy Benita
Brutalina
Noetzie
It's A Yes
Behaviour
Foxenberg
Damehood
Dobkins
Quoin
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