Stow Storage Solutions (Bm100)
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 7 at Caulfield
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
The map lacks multiple high-pressure leaders. The pace will be dictated almost entirely by **#11 El Rocko**, who is the sole designated front-runner. However, drawing the widest barrier necessitates he be ridden forward to cross the field, which will ensure the pace is not a crawl. Once he finds the front, the tempo is likely to steady.
🏃♂️Likely Positions In-Running
🥇Leaders
#11 El Rocko is the most probable leader, forced to work across from barrier 11. #6 Earlswood has the versatility to sit outside the lead if the tempo is comfortable.
🏃On-Pace/Handy
#2 Detonator Jack is mapped for the box seat run from barrier 1. #8 Seonee should land in a perfect spot, one or two pairs back on the rail from gate 2. #4 Forgot You can push up from gate 6 to sit in the first four or five, likely with cover.
🏃♂️Midfield
The majority of the field will settle here. #3 Munhamek, #7 Milford, #10 Regal Vow, and the import #9 Newlook are all expected to find positions mid-pack, with or without cover depending on how the field sorts itself out.
🐌Backmarkers
#1 Berkeley Square and #5 St Lawrence will be ridden quietly from their draws and be spotting the leaders a significant start. They will be relying on a solid tempo and clear runs in the straight.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
With the rail out 4m, the track should play fairly. However, with racing on a Soft (5) surface, the inside lanes could experience some wear by this stage of the day. This may lead to a slight preference for horses making their runs in lanes 3-5 in the straight. This doesn't inherently disadvantage leaders but means those saving ground on the fence will need to have a strong kick on potentially inferior ground. It could offer a slight advantage to on-pace horses who can peel off the fence at the top of the straight.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
The Soft (5) rating will ensure a fair test of stamina at the end of 1600m. The surface will have give, which may assist horses that appreciate getting their toe in the ground. The moderate tempo predicted means the race could evolve into a sustained sprint from the 600m, placing emphasis on a strong turn of foot combined with the ability to handle the soft ground. Any further rain would significantly advantage proven wet-trackers and make the task for leaders tougher, bringing strong finishers more into the race.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The Caulfield 1600m start is located at the top of the home straight, providing a good 600m run to the first turn. This gives horses drawn wide, like #11 El Rocko, a fair opportunity to cross and find a position without being posted wide for the entire circuit, provided they have the necessary gate speed. The long, sweeping home turn allows horses to build momentum, but on a track with a moderate tempo, it can be difficult for backmarkers to make up the required ground if the leaders get to quicken from the 400m mark.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
As a BM100 Handicap, this is a high-quality event for seasoned gallopers. The map should be reasonably predictable as these are professional horses with established patterns. The weight scale (60kg to 53kg) is condensed enough that class and the run of the race will be paramount. Expect tactical rides from senior jockeys who will be acutely aware of the moderate pace and will be looking for any opportunity to gain a positional advantage.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
The race is likely to be a tactical affair controlled by a moderate tempo. The key phase will be from the 800m to the 400m mark, where jockeys on midfield runners will need to decide whether to get moving or risk being caught flat-footed in a sprint home. The race shape strongly favours those positioned on the pace who get an economical run, as they can kick for home at the top of the straight and be hard to run down. Backmarkers face a significant challenge unless the on-pace runners engage in an unexpected mid-race duel.
✅Most Advantaged
#2 Detonator Jack. Drawn to get the perfect run of the race in the box seat. From barrier 1, Logan Bates can have him asleep on the back of the leaders without spending a cent. With a moderate tempo, he will be perfectly positioned to strike at the top of the straight and gets every conceivable map-related advantage. #8 Seonee from gate 2 is in a very similar, highly advantageous position.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#11 El Rocko. Despite being the likely leader, he is forced to do it the hard way from the outside barrier. He must use energy early to cross and lead, leaving him vulnerable to being run down late by those who have enjoyed softer runs. The pure backmarkers #1 Berkeley Square and #5 St Lawrence are also disadvantaged by the predicted moderate tempo, which will make it extremely difficult to loop the field and sustain a long run to win.
💰Betting Considerations
- Primary Focus: Horses mapped to get an economical run on or near the speed. #2 Detonator Jack and #8 Seonee are the standout runners from a mapping perspective and should be given strong consideration.
- Risk Assessment: #11 El Rocko is a risk due to the wide barrier and the energy he must expend early. He could be a vulnerable favourite.
- Value Opportunities: Look for horses like #4 Forgot You or #3 Munhamek at odds. They will get good runs from midfield and if the pace is slightly more genuine than anticipated, or if they get a good trail into the race, they have the class to finish over the top.
- The Query: #9 Newlook is the unknown factor. Strong European form and a booking for Jamie Kah demand respect. A market watch is essential; any significant betting support would be a strong lead.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Berkeley Square
Detonator Jack
Munhamek
Forgot You
St Lawrence
Earlswood
Milford
Seonee
Newlook
Regal Vow
El Rocko
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