Eagle Farm 160 Years Raceday (Bm85)
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 2 at Doomben
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
The pace map points to a solid tempo with multiple horses possessing early speed. #5 Space Age is a natural leader who will be compelled to press forward from barrier 8 to find the front. He will not get it all his own way, as #2 Weigall Tiger has a history of leading or sitting outside the leader and is drawn to his inside. This duel for the lead will ensure there is no loafing through the early and middle stages.
🏃♂️Likely Positions In-Running
🥇Leaders
Expect a contest for the front between #5 Space Age and #2 Weigall Tiger. Space Age from the wider draw will be intent on crossing, likely taking up the running with Weigall Tiger settling on his outside.
🏃On-Pace/Handy
This is the ideal position in this race. #8 Kadall is drawn perfectly in barrier 2 to land in the box seat, third on the rail, doing no work. #6 Indifference from barrier 3 should also hold a handy spot just behind the speed. #3 Skyforger is versatile and will likely push up from barrier 6 to sit one-off-the-rail with cover, in a stalking position.
🏃♂️Midfield
The only horse likely to settle here is the wildcard #7 Sir Carter. With no recent runs and drawn the inside gate, the logical tactic would be to take a sit midfield on the fence to conserve energy.
🐌Backmarkers
In this small field, it is unlikely any runner will be detached from the main group. The race shape suggests no true backmarkers.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
With the rail at +3m, the track should play fairly. This position can sometimes slightly favour those on-pace, as it can make the turn a little tighter and the straight feel even shorter. For inside-drawn horses like #8 Kadall (2) and #6 Indifference (3), it enhances their ability to hold a positive position without spending extra energy. It makes the task for those pressing forward from wider out marginally more difficult, reinforcing the view that the leaders will have to work.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
The Soft (5) rating indicates a surface with some give but it will not be a heavy slog. This will bring horse fitness and stamina to the fore, especially given the predicted strong tempo. Any horse that over-races or is forced to do too much work early will be found out in the final 200m. Every runner in this field has placed on soft ground previously, so none are overtly disadvantaged by the surface, but it will ensure a true test of stamina over the mile.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The 1615m start at Doomben provides a good run down the back straight to the first turn, which allows horses drawn in middle gates like #5 Space Age (8) and #2 Weigall Tiger (7) a fair chance to cross and find a position without being trapped wide. However, the Doomben straight is notoriously short, which typically favours horses who are on-pace and can get the first run on the swoopers. A strong tempo could negate this slightly, but those settled in the first four positions around the turn will hold a distinct tactical advantage.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
As a Benchmark 85 Handicap, this is a competitive race where horses are seasoned and generally run to their established patterns. The speed map is therefore likely to be reliable. The weights are relatively compressed, but the significant weight relief for #7 Sir Carter (51.5kg) is notable, though offset by the uncertainty of a long layoff. The strong pace scenario will make every kilo count in the final stages.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
The race is set to be run at a genuine to strong tempo, dictated by #5 Space Age and #2 Weigall Tiger. This will create a perfect stalking opportunity for a horse that can secure an economical run just behind the speed. The short Doomben straight means a horse buried back in the field will find it extremely difficult to make up the required ground. The winner will likely come from the on-pace group that enjoys cover.
✅Most Advantaged
#8 Kadall The map looks absolutely perfect for this horse. From barrier 2, Damien Thornton can have him asleep in the box seat, watching the leaders set a strong pace. He won't spend a penny in the run and was unlucky last start when held up. With clear running from the top of the straight, he is poised to exploit the hard work done by others and pounce late.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#5 Space Age Despite being a talented on-pacer, the combination of a wide gate (8), a likely pace challenger in #2 Weigall Tiger drawn to his inside, and a Soft (5) track presents a difficult task. He will be forced to do significant work to lead, which is likely to leave him vulnerable to a horse with a softer run like Kadall.
💰Betting Considerations
The speed map analysis points directly to #8 Kadall as the horse with the most favourable tactical setup. He represents a strong betting proposition based on the predicted race shape. The leaders, #5 Space Age and #2 Weigall Tiger, appear vulnerable due to the expected pace battle and could be betting risks at short odds. For value, #3 Skyforger maps to get a nice run in a stalking position and has the form to be in the finish if the leaders tire more than expected. A betting strategy centered around #8 Kadall to win, with potential to save on #3 Skyforger, aligns perfectly with the tactical analysis of this race.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Weigall Tiger
Skyforger
Space Age
Indifference
Sir Carter
Kadall
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