Mekka Raceday 16 August (Bm70)
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 3 at Doomben
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
The tempo will be dictated by the designated leader #14 Jillaroo, who has a history of leading but must work hard from the wide barrier (13) to cross the field. This early pressure will be a key factor. There is enough tactical speed from inside draws to ensure Jillaroo does not get an easy lead, preventing a slow pace.
🏃♂️Likely Positions In-Running
🥇Leaders
#14 Jillaroo is the most likely to press on and eventually find the lead, but will be forced to burn some early energy. #18 Kairos Louie will use the inside draw to be right on the speed, a strong chance to hold the fence in the box seat or even lead if Jillaroo can't cross easily.
🏃On-Pace/Handy
#4 Cold One should use the good draw (3) to trail the leaders on the fence. #9 Watermelon and #11 More Love are expected to work forward and settle in the first four or five, likely one-off-the-rail with cover.
🏃♂️Midfield
#12 Chayse 'n' Adam (5) and #17 Takunai (4) are drawn for perfect, economical runs in midfield. The two runners without recent form, #2 Heman (2) and #7 Our Turn Now (6), are likely to settle in this group, saving ground.
🐌Backmarkers
#5 Rock Hard Love, #13 Pleadeel, and #15 Pele Princess will settle near the rear of the field as is their custom. They will be joined by those drawn extremely wide who will be forced to snag back for cover, namely #8 Who Ordered Dafish (15) and #16 Haysiri (16).
🛤️Rail Position Impact
With the rail at +3m for the entire circuit, the track can play evenly, but it often slightly advantages those who can save ground towards the inside. It can make the track feel tighter and shorten the home straight, placing further emphasis on securing a forward or midfield position in the run. Finding clear running from the back can be more challenging.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
The track is rated a Soft (5), indicating a surface with good give. This will test the stamina of all runners at the end of the mile. Horses proven on rain-affected ground will hold an advantage. The soft surface may blunt the finishing speed of some runners and could make the early work done by #14 Jillaroo more telling in the final stages. A sustained, grinding finish will likely be more effective than a sharp turn of foot.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The 1615m start at Doomben provides a fair run of approximately 300m to the first turn. This allows horses with early speed, like #14 Jillaroo, a chance to cross from wider gates. However, those without that top-end speed can be caught wide and without cover. The Doomben straight is notoriously short at 340m, which typically favours horses positioned on or near the pace who can get the first run on the swoopers. A genuine tempo is often required for backmarkers to be effective here.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
As a Benchmark 70 Handicap, this is a competitive race with a field of well-exposed horses. The presence of two runners lacking recent form (#2 Heman, #7 Our Turn Now) adds a layer of uncertainty to the map. The handicap conditions mean horses like #18 Kairos Louie and #12 Chayse 'n' Adam get in with manageable weights, giving them an excellent opportunity if they get the right run as predicted by the map.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
The race is likely to be run at a genuine tempo due to the pressure from the wide-drawn leader #14 Jillaroo and the on-pace runners drawn inside. This should give most runners a fair chance. However, the combination of the Doomben mile, a short straight, and a Soft (5) surface suggests that horses drawn to get an economical run in the first half of the field will be significantly advantaged. Horses caught wide or settling too far back will face a formidable task to make up the required ground.
✅Most Advantaged
#18 Kairos Louie (18) The map looks perfect. From barrier 1, Luke Dempsey can elect to lead or take the ideal trail in the box seat behind #14 Jillaroo. He will do no work in the run and be perfectly poised to strike at the top of the short straight.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#14 Jillaroo (14) While it's the probable leader, it must do a significant amount of work from barrier 13 on a soft track to get there. This could leave it as a sitting shot for a horse like #18 Kairos Louie in the final 200m. Additionally, the backmarkers drawn wide, specifically #13 Pleadeel (19) and #8 Who Ordered Dafish (15), face a near-impossible task to get into the race without a blistering speed up front and a lot of luck in running.
💰Betting Considerations
The analysis strongly points towards horses drawn to receive an economical run in a forward-to-midfield position. #18 Kairos Louie is the standout from a mapping perspective and should be a key contender. #12 Chayse 'n' Adam is another who is drawn for a perfect run and must be respected. Given the effort #14 Jillaroo will have to expend early, it may be a risky betting proposition at short odds. For value, a horse like #4 Cold One could get a soft run on the fence just behind the speed and present an opportunity at a price. Backmarkers, especially those drawn wide, appear to be poor risks in this specific race setup.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Heman
Cold One
Rock Hard Love
Let Fly
Our Turn Now
Who Ordered Dafish
Watermelon
More Love
Chayse 'n' Adam
Pleadeel
Jillaroo
Pele Princess
Haysiri
Takunai
Kairos Louie
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