Moreton Hire Plate (C3)
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 5 at Doomben
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
This race is loaded with natural front-running horses. There are at least four designated speed influences who will be looking for a forward position, which should ensure a solid and contested tempo from the outset. The pressure will be applied from both inside and middle barriers.
🏃♂️Likely Positions In-Running
🥇Leaders
Expect a genuine battle for the lead. #2 Jonny Da Wolf (3) will likely try to hold the fence. #5 Runwiththetide (2) will be right there with it. #12 Board Member (8) and #13 Certainlycan (6) will be forced to push forward from their middle gates, ensuring there is no cheap lead.
🏃On-Pace/Handy
This is the ideal position in this race. #10 End Assembly (1) is mapped to get the dream run in the box seat, saving ground behind the speed duel. #16 Gospel Girl (5) should land in the perfect one-out, one-back position. #14 Lead Me On (9) will likely be pushed forward but may be caught three-wide on the pace.
🏃♂️Midfield
#17 Ready Azz Eva (11) is first-up from a spell and drawn awkwardly. Expect it to be ridden patiently and find a spot in the running line, mid-pack.
🐌Backmarkers
#11 He's For The Girls (14) has the outside barrier and a pattern of settling back in the field. It will almost certainly be snagged back to the rear and will be relying on a fast pace to run on.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
With the rail at +3m, the track can play slightly tighter, and finding a position with cover becomes even more crucial. It often keeps the field somewhat compacted, which can make it difficult for backmarkers to find clear galloping room in the straight if they are held up behind tiring leaders. On-pace runners who have had an economical run are typically advantaged with this rail position.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
The Soft (5) rating presents a fair racing surface that should not disadvantage most runners. However, the combination of a strong tempo and soft ground will place a premium on stamina in the final 200m. Horses that over-exert themselves early will be highly vulnerable late. Proven ability on soft ground is a distinct positive, and runners like #2 Jonny Da Wolf and #16 Gospel Girl have recent form on similar surfaces. The track should play evenly, but any horse suspect at a strong 1200m will be found out.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The 1200m start at Doomben provides a relatively short run to the first turn. This configuration heavily favours horses drawn inside barriers, allowing them to conserve energy while holding a forward position. Conversely, it is a significant disadvantage for those drawn wide who must either burn petrol to cross the field or risk being caught deep for the entire race. The strong predicted pace will amplify this, punishing any horse that has to do extra work early.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
This is a Class 3 Plate, meaning all horses run at set weights according to the conditions, rather than being handicapped on form. This is a significant advantage for the progressive, in-form horses who are on an upward trajectory. A horse like #2 Jonny Da Wolf, coming off two dominant wins, is extremely well-suited by this race structure as it is not penalised for its recent success.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
The race sets up for a high-pressure contest where the early leaders are likely to cut each other's throats. The winner is highly likely to come from just off the speed, having enjoyed an energy-saving run while the pace battle unfolds. The combination of a strong tempo, the Doomben 1200m start, and the soft ground will make it a survival of the fittest in the home straight. Those who work too hard early will pay the price. The race will likely develop into a sprint home from the 400m mark, favouring those who have been tucked away with cover.
✅Most Advantaged
#10 End Assembly (10) is mapped to perfection. From barrier 1, B Wheeler should be able to park it directly behind the speed duel in the box seat. With a strong pace guaranteed, it will have the most economical run in the race and only needs clear air in the straight to be a major force. #16 Gospel Girl (16) is also in a prime spot from barrier 5 to land one-one and pounce.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#12 Board Member (12) faces a nightmare scenario. As a natural leader drawn in barrier 8, it must press forward but will encounter significant pressure from well-drawn leaders inside it. It faces the high probability of being caught three-wide without cover on a hot pace, a position from which it is almost impossible to win. #11 He's For The Girls (11) from barrier 14 is also in a hopeless position.
💰Betting Considerations
The speed map strongly advises against backing the leaders drawn in middle-to-wide gates due to the immense pressure they will face. The value lies with the runners poised to get a perfect trail just behind the speed.
- Primary Bet: #10 End Assembly gets the 'A1' map. If it can find a gap at the top of the straight, it is the horse with the most advantages on its side.
- Strong Consideration: #16 Gospel Girl also maps beautifully and will likely be in the perfect stalking position to finish over the top of the tiring leaders.
- Risk: Avoid horses like #12 Board Member and #14 Lead Me On who are likely to be caught wide on a strong pace. While talented, their race map is simply too difficult to overcome under these circumstances.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Jonny Da Wolf
Runwiththetide
End Assembly
He's For The Girls
Board Member
Certainlycan
Lead Me On
Gospel Girl
Ready Azz Eva
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