XXXX Gold (Bm85)
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 7 at Doomben
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
The presence of a dedicated leader in **#14 Super Duck** ensures the race will not be a crawl. Pressure is likely to come from **#9 Castillian**, who led all the way to win last start and is drawn to be prominent, and **#11 Set To Shine**, who is drawn wide (13) and may be forced to push forward to find a position rather than be caught deep. This combination of a natural leader and tactical speed drawn inside and out should generate an honest and true tempo throughout.
🏃♂️Likely Positions In-Running
🥇Leaders
#14 Super Duck is the most probable leader. #9 Castillian is expected to be right there, sitting outside the lead or taking it up if the former is slow away.
🏃On-Pace/Handy
#5 Corfe Castle is drawn perfectly in barrier 1 to take the box seat trail behind the leaders. #4 Rise Of The Masses can use the inside draw (2) to be handy. #11 Set To Shine will likely be forced to work across from its wide gate and settle on the pace, possibly without cover. #1 Swiss Exile will likely seek a position one-off with cover in the first five.
🏃♂️Midfield
#8 Deep Respect, #2 Winston Smurfhill, and #6 Don't Stop profile as horses that will settle in the middle of the pack, seeking cover. #15 Sultry Siren is drawn extremely wide (14) and will almost certainly be ridden patiently to find a spot with cover in the back half of the midfield group.
🐌Backmarkers
#7 Cunnamulla Fella and #3 Amur are genuine get-back runners who will settle near the rear of the field and rely on a strong finishing burst.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
With the rail at +3m, the track will play slightly tighter. This can sometimes advantage on-pace runners, as it can be harder for swoopers to loop the field and make up ground in the shorter straight. Inside draws become more valuable, and horses that can hold a forward position without burning too much energy are often favoured. The inside section of the track should still be in good condition.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
The track is rated a Soft (5), which is an ideal racing surface with good give. This condition is unlikely to produce a significant track bias and should allow all horses to perform to their ability. It will not be a stamina-sapping heavy track, meaning horses with a good turn of foot can still be effective. The genuine pace predicted, combined with the soft surface, will ensure a fair test for all runners.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The 1350m start at Doomben provides a run of approximately 350m to the first and only turn into the home straight. This is a reasonable run that gives horses with pace an opportunity to cross over from middle barriers. However, wide gates like 13 and 14 remain a distinct disadvantage. The Doomben straight is relatively short at 350m, which typically favours horses that are on-pace or can make their move before the turn. Backmarkers need a solid tempo and clear running to make up the ground effectively.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
This is a Benchmark 85 Handicap, a competitive mid-week metropolitan grade. The handicap conditions mean proven performers carry more weight, theoretically giving lighter-weighted horses a chance. The presence of three runners resuming from a spell (#1 Swiss Exile, #2 Winston Smurfhill, #4 Rise Of The Masses) adds a layer of uncertainty to the map, as their fitness and early tactical intent are not guaranteed.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
The race is likely to be controlled from the front. The moderate to genuine pace set by #14 Super Duck and stalked by #9 Castillian and #5 Corfe Castle will create a scenario where on-pace runners are advantaged. The short straight at Doomben makes it difficult for backmarkers unless the pace completely collapses. Horses drawn wide will struggle to find a good position without being caught deep, putting them at a significant tactical disadvantage. The race will likely develop into a sprint home from the 400m mark, favouring those who have had an economical run near the speed.
✅Most Advantaged
#9 Castillian (4) is in a perfect tactical position. Drawn well in barrier 4, it has the speed to sit on the pace without spending energy, comes into the race in winning form, and jockey Angela Jones is an expert at rating front-runners. The map sets up perfectly for this horse to be in the right spot to strike at the top of the straight. #5 Corfe Castle (1) is also greatly advantaged by the rails draw, mapping to get the dream run in the box seat.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#15 Sultry Siren (14) faces a monumental task from the outside barrier. Despite being a last-start winner, the draw likely forces it to go back to the tail of the field, leaving it with too much ground to make up in the short Doomben straight. #11 Set To Shine (13) is in a similar predicament and risks being posted three-wide with no cover for the entire journey, which would nullify its finishing effort.
💰Betting Considerations
The analysis strongly points towards horses drawn to get an economical run on or near the speed. #9 Castillian profiles as the horse with the most favourable map and should be a key contender. #5 Corfe Castle from the inside gate represents potential value, as it is guaranteed a soft run and will just need luck in the straight. There is significant risk associated with the wide-drawn runners, particularly #15 Sultry Siren and #11 Set To Shine, who would need exceptional luck or a pace meltdown to feature in the finish. Backmarkers like #7 Cunnamulla Fella will need the pace to be faster than predicted to be a winning chance.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Swiss Exile
Winston Smurfhill
Amur
Rise Of The Masses
Corfe Castle
Don't Stop
Cunnamulla Fella
Deep Respect
Castillian
Set To Shine
Super Duck
Sultry Siren
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