Fleurieu Milk Company Hcp (C2)
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 4 at Morphettville
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
The map is loaded with sources of pressure. #2 From The Block is a natural, free-running leader who has won his last four races by controlling the pace from the front. He will be challenged for this role by #13 Duchess Of Sussex, who has excellent gate speed and the ideal draw in barrier 2 to punch up and hold a prominent position. The main pressure will come from the wide draws.
🏃♂️Likely Positions In-Running
🥇Leaders
Expect a genuine battle for the lead. #2 From The Block will be sent forward, but #13 Duchess Of Sussex will use barrier 2 to either hold the rail and lead or sit directly on its flank. #7 Hot Strut is likely to be forced to work hard to sit outside this pair.
🏃On-Pace/Handy
This is the golden position in the race. #11 Never Surrender (3) and #14 Bona Fide Star (5) have drawn perfectly to trail the speed, saving crucial energy. #5 High On Sugar will likely aim for a similar spot, one off the fence with cover. #10 Mercury Eight, if it cannot cross, risks being caught wide in this position without cover.
🏃♂️Midfield
#1 Bancoora, #6 Even Sharper, and #15 Ponty Well are expected to settle in the middle of the pack, looking for cover and a trail into the race from the 600m mark.
🐌Backmarkers
#9 Tallapoosa, #8 Hypernova, and #12 Tiritiri will settle at the rear of the field by design. They will rely on the strong tempo to tire out the leaders and will be making their runs down the outside in the straight.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
With the rail in the True position on a Heavy (9) track, the inside section is likely to deteriorate as the meeting progresses. While saving ground early is an advantage, the preferred going in the straight may be several lanes off the fence. This could negate the benefit of an inside draw for horses that get locked away and can't get to the better ground late. Jockeys on backmarkers will likely aim for wide, clear runs down the centre of the track.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
The Heavy (9) rating is the single most important factor. This will be a gruelling contest that nullifies pure speed and places a premium on stamina and genuine wet-track ability. The strong predicted pace will ensure there is no hiding place; horses will need to be fully fit and capable of handling the conditions to be in the finish. Leaders going too hard will be extremely vulnerable in the final 200m. This track condition significantly favours proven mudlarks and strong finishers over brilliant, fast-ground specialists.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The 1200m start at Morphettville offers a fair run of approximately 400m to the first turn, giving horses drawn wide a chance to find a position. However, on a Heavy (9) surface, any extra ground covered early will be extremely taxing. The long home straight will give every runner their chance, but it will be a true test of stamina. Horses that have to make long, sustained runs from the back will need to be exceptionally strong and proven on the ground.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
This is a Class 2 Handicap, representing a step up in grade for several runners coming off maiden victories. The handicap system brings horses like #1 Bancoora and #2 From The Block into the race with the top weight of 60.0kg. Conceding weight to improving, lighter-weighted rivals on a Heavy 9 track is a significant challenge and could be the telling factor late in the race.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
This race projects to be a war of attrition. A strong tempo set by multiple on-pace runners on a genuinely heavy track will set the race up perfectly for horses that can take a sit, handle the ground, and produce a strong, sustained finish. The 1200m will run like a 1400m or further. Leaders and those caught wide will be under extreme pressure and are likely to weaken considerably in the home straight. The race will likely develop into a charge of the swoopers from the 400m mark, with those who saved the most energy early having the decisive final kick.
✅Most Advantaged
#9 Tallapoosa (11) This horse is a dedicated backmarker who will get the strong tempo he needs. Critically, he has two wins on Heavy 8 tracks, proving his ability to handle these exact conditions. From the back, Liam Riordan can keep him balanced and bring him down the outside on the better ground. He is set up perfectly.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#7 Hot Strut (13) The combination of a wide barrier, an on-pace racing style, and a Heavy 9 track is a recipe for failure. He will have to do far too much work early to find a position and is highly likely to be a spent force by the top of the straight. #10 Mercury Eight (14) is in a similar, if not worse, predicament.
💰Betting Considerations
The map strongly suggests focusing on proven wet-track swoopers and betting against the speed influences, particularly those drawn wide.
- Primary Strategy: Back horses that will settle midfield or worse and have proven form on heavy tracks. #9 Tallapoosa fits this profile perfectly and should represent value. #1 Bancoora won well on a Soft 7 last start, gets the right tempo, and is a key chance. #11 Never Surrender gets a dream run from the barrier and must be included if he handles the ground.
- Lay/Risk: #7 Hot Strut and #10 Mercury Eight are significant risks due to their barriers and the likely pace pressure on this surface. #2 From The Block is also vulnerable due to the combination of pace pressure, top weight, and stepping up in class.
- Value/Exotics: Look to include strong finishers at odds. #6 Even Sharper has placed on soft ground and will be running on. #8 Hypernova is another backmarker who could relish the tempo, provided he handles the truly heavy going. Building exotics around the closers appears to be the most logical approach.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Bancoora
From The Block
High On Sugar
Even Sharper
Hot Strut
Hypernova
Tallapoosa
Mercury Eight
Never Surrender
Tiritiri
Duchess Of Sussex
Bona Fide Star
Ponty Well
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