Adelaide Galvanising Industries Hcp (64)
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 6 at Morphettville
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
There appears to be only one designated leader in the race, creating the potential for a moderately run contest. The tempo will be heavily influenced by early tactical decisions from a couple of runners drawn wide.
🏃♂️Likely Positions In-Running
🥇Leaders
#16 Monseagle is the standout leader and should dictate terms from the front.
🏃On-Pace/Handy
Expect #13 Rikki Rikkardo and #3 Big Sue to be the most prominent of the chasing pack, though they risk being caught wide if they can't slot in. #8 Flyway from a middle gate may push up to settle in the first four or five.
🏃♂️Midfield
The bulk of the field will settle here. #1 Exabanoise (5) and #14 Alainge (2) are drawn perfectly to get economical runs just behind the speed. #15 Allegedly (10) and #18 Bellavardo (3) will also likely find spots in the running line mid-pack.
🐌Backmarkers
#9 Moscow Red, #11 Red Roof, and #12 Zarkana are all habitual backmarkers. They will settle at or near the rear of the field and will be relying on a solid tempo and/or tiring leaders to make their runs in the straight.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
With the rail in the True position, the track should play fairly, at least early in the day. However, on a Heavy 9, the inside lanes can become chopped up and inferior ground as the meeting progresses. Jockeys may look to scout wider paths in the straight seeking firmer going, which could negate the advantage of an inside draw and benefit those who can sustain a wide run.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
The Heavy (9) rating is the single most significant factor. This will be a gruelling test of stamina. The overall time will be slow, and the race will be won by the horse that handles the boggy conditions best and has the fitness to run out a strong 1500m. Leaders can be vulnerable late if they expend too much energy early. Proven wet-track form is absolutely critical; horses that have only performed on good ground are at a severe disadvantage. The race will be less about tactical speed and more about strength and attrition.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The 1500m start at Morphettville provides a fair run of approximately 400m to the first turn, giving horses a reasonable opportunity to find a position. However, on a Heavy 9 track, any extra ground covered is magnified. The long home straight of around 340m typically gives all runners their chance, but on such a testing surface, it will become a true grind, favouring horses with superior stamina and an ability to handle the conditions.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
As a Restricted 64 handicap, this is a race for horses of a modest class level where form can be inconsistent. The handicap conditions mean proven performers carry more weight, which is a greater burden on a heavy track. Lighter-weighted horses with proven heavy track ability are often advantaged in these conditions.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
The race is likely to be controlled from the front by #16 Monseagle at a moderate tempo. The Heavy 9 track will turn the long Morphettville straight into a significant test of endurance. Horses that can obtain an economical, ground-saving run in the first half of the field will be at a distinct advantage, conserving energy for a final, grinding push to the line. Backmarkers will struggle if the pace is as moderate as predicted, as they will need to make up considerable ground on a track where it is difficult to accelerate quickly. The race will be won and lost based on who handles the heavy going and who has the best run in transit.
✅Most Advantaged
#14 Alainge (14) This horse's map is perfect. It comes into the race with two dominant recent wins, including one on a Heavy 10 track at Mt Gambier. From barrier 2, Sairyn Fawke can give it a beautiful, economical run in midfield, saving ground on the rail before peeling out in the straight. It is a proven wet tracker in form with a favourable map.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#3 Big Sue (3) The combination of the extreme outside barrier (16) on a Heavy 9 track is a brutal setup. It will either be forced to cover significant extra ground pushing forward or be snagged to the rear of the field, leaving it with an impossible task. This horse faces a monumental challenge to get into a winning position. #9 Moscow Red (9), as a noted backmarker who is often slow away, will also find it very difficult to make up the necessary ground from the rear if the pace is moderate.
💰Betting Considerations
- Primary Focus: The map points squarely to horses with proven heavy track form drawn for an economical run. The Heavy 9 condition should be the primary factor in any betting decision.
- Key Runner: #14 Alainge profiles as the horse to beat. The combination of its recent wet track form, ideal barrier draw, and the likely race shape gives it a significant tactical advantage. It will likely be short in the market but is a clear top selection.
- Value/Exotics: #1 Exabanoise is also well-positioned. It has won on a Heavy 8, draws well in barrier 5 to get a good run, and should be strong to the line. Include it in all exotic wagers. #16 Monseagle could be hard to run down if it gets away with very soft sectionals, but the final 200m on a heavy track will be the major test.
- Risks: Be very cautious of horses drawn wide and those without established form on genuinely heavy ground. #3 Big Sue is a clear risk from the barrier. The backmarkers, particularly #9 Moscow Red and #12 Zarkana, will need the race to be run at a faster-than-expected tempo to be a winning chance.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Exabanoise
Big Sue
Flyway
Moscow Red
Red Roof
Zarkana
Rikki Rikkardo
Alainge
Allegedly
Monseagle
Bellavardo
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