Dominant (Bm68)

With the rail in the True position on a Heavy 9, the inside lanes are at high risk of becoming chopped up and inferior ground as the meeting progresses. While inside barriers offer the shortest way home, jockeys may actively seek wider, potentially firmer, ground in the straight. This could nullify the advantage for horses like #16 Peta's Heart and #7 High Society Girl and may even benefit runners who are forced to make their runs down the centre of the track.

The Heavy (9) rating is the single most critical factor. This will be an extreme test of stamina. The predicted strong pace will be even more taxing, sorting out the genuine wet-track stayers from the pretenders. Horses without proven form on genuinely bottomless tracks are at a severe disadvantage. The race will be won by the fittest horse with the best wet-track credentials, not necessarily the fastest. Leaders are highly vulnerable to tiring badly in the final 200m.

The 2000m start at Morphettville provides a long 600m run to the first turn. This gives horses drawn wide like #5 Wine Barron and #10 Chance Taken an opportunity to cross without being immediately caught four and five deep. However, it will require a significant expenditure of energy to do so, especially on a Heavy 9 surface. The long home straight (approx. 340m) will feel like an eternity for the leaders who have gone too hard, offering a significant advantage to the strong finishers who have had a more economical run.

As a Benchmark 68 Handicap, this field comprises horses with varying form lines. The weight scale is relatively compressed from 61.0kg to 52.5kg. On such a testing track, every half-kilo is crucial. Lighter-weighted horses with proven heavy track ability, such as #15 Silent Emmy (52.5kg) and #11 Exalted Ruth (53.5kg), receive a tangible advantage over the 2000m slog.