Midway (Bm72)
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 2 at Randwick
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
The map points to a genuine tempo, primarily influenced by the number of on-pace horses drawn wide who will be forced to press forward.
🏃♂️Likely Positions In-Running
🥇Leaders
#3 Forecaster is the most likely to hold the lead from the rails draw. Expect pressure from #5 High Dandy who may be forced to sit outside the leader after crossing from the wide gate.
🏃On-Pace/Handy
#13 Jacob's Time is drawn perfectly in barrier 3 to take the box seat behind the leaders. #16 Starphistocated will work across from barrier 11 to sit one-off-the-rail. #1 Promitto will likely push forward from gate 9 to find a spot in the first four or five, potentially being caught three-wide.
🏃♂️Midfield
A large group will settle here. #4 Glad You Think So is likely to be caught wide but with cover from barrier 12. #7 Agita, #8 Sunsource and #11 Nosey Parker have drawn well enough to find comfortable positions in the running line. #14 Mizella will likely settle mid-pack from gate 8.
🐌Backmarkers
#2 Kingston Charm and #15 Binkou are habitual backmarkers and will settle towards the rear. Binkou from gate 2 risks being buried on the fence. #12 So Sleek will likely get back from the wide alley, along with the query runner #9 Callistemon from the extreme outside.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
The rail at +11m from the 1000m to the winning post and +8m for the remainder is a critical factor. This position significantly favours on-pace runners. The turn for home is tighter, and horses making their runs from the back will have to cover substantially more ground to get around the field. Leaders and those in the first few pairs who can kick on the turn are at a distinct advantage. This track setup makes it extremely difficult for backmarkers to win unless the pace completely collapses.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
A Soft (6) track will ensure this is a genuine test of stamina over the mile. It may slightly dull the finishing sprints of some runners and will bring proven wet-trackers into play. With the rail out this far, the track may start to favour runners finding slightly wider lanes in the straight if the inside ground begins to chop up. The conditions will make it tough for leaders to sustain a high-pressure tempo, but equally difficult for backmarkers to make up ground rapidly.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The 1600m start at Randwick provides a long 600m run to the first turn. This gives on-pace horses drawn wide a chance to cross without being trapped deep, but doing so in a race with genuine pressure will expend significant energy. The long, spacious home straight typically allows all runners their chance, however, the track configuration combined with other factors in this race will likely favour those closer to the lead.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
As a BM72 Handicap, this is a competitive race where weights can play a role. The top weight, #1 Promitto (60.5kg), will find his task more difficult on the soft ground against lighter-weighted rivals. Horses like #3 Forecaster (56.0kg) and #11 Nosey Parker (53.5kg) receive a significant weight advantage. The "Midway" condition restricts the race to smaller provincial and city stables, ensuring a very evenly matched field.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
The combination of a genuine pace, a Soft 6 surface, and crucially, the rail being out +11m, creates a strong tactical bias. The race shape heavily favours runners who can settle on-pace from a good barrier. They will do less work, get first run on the turn, and will be hard to catch on a track that will be difficult to make up ground on. Runners drawn wide will be forced to burn energy early, and backmarkers face an almost impossible task to loop the field.
✅Most Advantaged
#3 Forecaster (1) He maps to get the lead from the inside gate, gets in with a light weight, and the rail position is a massive advantage for a leader. He can dictate terms or take a trail if the pressure is too intense, but from gate 1 he holds all the cards and will be extremely hard to get past. #13 Jacob's Time (3) is also perfectly positioned to get the run of the race from the box seat, saving ground and energy for the final straight.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#5 High Dandy (14) Drawn the car park, he has to do a mountain of work to get a forward position and risks being caught wide without cover. This is a very difficult map for him. Similarly, #2 Kingston Charm (7) and #15 Binkou (2), as natural backmarkers, are severely disadvantaged by the track pattern. Binkou in particular risks being last on the fence with nowhere to go.
💰Betting Considerations
The analysis points strongly towards on-pace runners drawn inside barriers.
- Primary Bet: #3 Forecaster profiles as the horse to beat. His map advantage is significant and he should be at the forefront of betting calculations.
- Value/Exotics: #13 Jacob's Time is the other horse with a dream map and should be included in all exotics. For a horse at bigger odds, #7 Agita is drawn to get a good run midfield and has performed well on rain-affected ground previously.
- Risks: It is advisable to bet against the wide-drawn on-pacers (#5 High Dandy, #4 Glad You Think So, #16 Starphistocated) and the backmarkers (#2 Kingston Charm, #15 Binkou), as the race shape and track configuration are heavily against them.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Promitto
Kingston Charm
Forecaster
Glad You Think So
High Dandy
Agita
Sunsource
Callistemon
Nosey Parker
So Sleek
Jacob's Time
Mizella
Binkou
Starphistocated
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