The Agency Real Estate (Bm72)
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 4 at Randwick
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
The presence of two confirmed front-runners, #2 Diddle Dumpling and #3 Signor Tortoni, ensures a legitimate contest for the lead. The situation is intensified by their respective barrier draws, which will force their hand early.
🏃♂️Likely Positions In-Running
🥇Leaders
Expect a duel between #2 Diddle Dumpling and #3 Signor Tortoni. Diddle Dumpling will have to do more work from the wider gate to cross, likely resulting in one leading and the other sitting at their girth, ensuring a strong, sustained tempo.
🏃On-Pace/Handy
#6 Glorious Moments is perfectly drawn in barrier 1 to take the coveted box-seat run, tracking the leaders. #7 Cougars will use barrier 3 to sit in the first four, likely one-off-the-rail. #5 Bartolf should use his inside draw (2) to be prominent, while #9 Cosmeena (5) will likely settle just behind this group, possibly three-wide with cover.
🏃♂️Midfield
#1 Codetta is drawn ideally in gate 4 to settle in a comfortable midfield position, saving ground on the fence or one-off. #4 Stardeel is versatile and from gate 6, Joshua Parr is likely to opt for a patient ride, settling midfield with cover behind the strong tempo.
🐌Backmarkers
This field lacks a natural backmarker. All runners possess some degree of tactical speed, meaning the field is likely to be relatively compact behind the leading group, with no horse expected to be detached at the rear.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
With the rail out +11m from the 1000m to the Winning Post and +8m for the remainder, the track will play significantly differently. This rail position often favours horses that are on-pace and can save ground, as the circumference is smaller. It can become difficult for those caught wide or coming from the back to make up the required ground if the field bunches on the turn. However, with wear and tear, the inside lanes can become inferior ground in the straight, potentially favouring horses who can peel out to lanes 3-5 to find a better going.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
The Soft (6) rating places a premium on race fitness and a horse's ability to handle rain-affected going. A strong tempo on a soft surface is particularly punishing and will find out any horse lacking stamina or a genuine liking for the conditions. Proven wet-trackers are at a distinct advantage. Horses will need to travel comfortably and efficiently to produce a finishing effort, and those forced to work hard early will be extremely vulnerable in the final 200m.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The 1300m start at Randwick provides a fair run of approximately 500m to the first and only turn. This gives horses drawn wide, like #2 Diddle Dumpling, a chance to press forward and find a position, though it requires sustained effort. The long Randwick home straight is famously testing, especially on rain-affected ground. The strong early pace predicted will make this 1300m race feel more like 1400m-1500m, sorting out the genuinely strong from those who have worked too hard early.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
As a Benchmark 72 for 3-year-olds, this race features a field of developing horses. The handicap conditions mean weights are relatively compressed, giving all runners a chance. Form can be less reliable than in open-age races, but the established racing patterns provide a solid foundation for the speed map. The competitive nature of a Saturday BM72 ensures jockeys will be looking to gain every advantage, contributing to a truly run race.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
The race is defined by a predicted strong speed duel between #2 Diddle Dumpling and #3 Signor Tortoni. This high-pressure scenario on a Soft 6 track with the rail out will create a tactical and challenging race. The leaders are likely to expend too much energy, setting the race up perfectly for a horse that can get an economical run just behind the speed. The Randwick straight will be a searching test of stamina, and the winner will need to have travelled well and possess a strong finishing burst on soft ground.
✅Most Advantaged
#1 Codetta (4) The race map appears tailor-made for this filly. She naturally settles midfield, so the strong pace is ideal for her closing pattern. She has consistently performed well on Soft/Heavy tracks. From barrier 4, she is drawn to get a perfect, ground-saving run and will be poised to strike in the straight as the leaders tire.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#2 Diddle Dumpling (9) Faces an arduous task. She must be ridden aggressively from the wide barrier to cross and lead, but will face immediate pressure from #3 Signor Tortoni. Burning energy at both ends of the race on a Soft 6 track is a recipe for being a sitting shot for the closers in the final furlong.
💰Betting Considerations
The speed map strongly suggests opposing the likely leaders, particularly #2 Diddle Dumpling, due to the high-pressure setup. The value lies with runners who can take a sit and have proven soft-track credentials.
- Primary Strategy: Back #1 Codetta. The combination of a perfect race shape, an ideal barrier draw, and proven ability on rain-affected ground makes her the most logical betting proposition.
- Exotic/Value Plays: #4 Stardeel is another who will appreciate the strong tempo and can finish powerfully. He is a must-include for quinellas and trifectas. #6 Glorious Moments gets the "map run" in the box seat and could be a threat if he gets clear room at the right time.
- Lay/Risk: #2 Diddle Dumpling is a high-risk proposition. Given the likely pace pressure from a wide gate on a soft track, she is worth betting against.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Codetta
Diddle Dumpling
Signor Tortoni
Stardeel
Bartolf
Glorious Moments
Cougars
Cosmeena
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