TAB (Bm78)
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 6 at Randwick
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
The presence of two natural leaders creates the foundation for a solid tempo. #5 She's Unusual led all the way to win over this course and distance last start and will be intent on using the inside draw (2). The main source of pressure comes from #3 Hasty Honey, who has led and won her last two starts and is drawn very wide in barrier 12. She has little choice but to press forward to avoid being caught deep, which will inject significant and sustained pressure into the first 600m.
🏃♂️Likely Positions In-Running
🥇Leaders
#5 She's Unusual will aim to hold the lead from the inside gate. #3 Hasty Honey is expected to press forward from the wide draw and will likely settle outside the leader, ensuring a constant and testing pace.
🏃On-Pace/Handy
#10 Bright Red is drawn perfectly in barrier 1 to take the coveted box-seat trail, saving ground just behind the leaders. #4 Belle Savoir profiles to work across from barrier 8 and find a position one-off-the-rail in the first four.
🏃♂️Midfield
The bulk of the field should settle here. #6 Extraordinaire (5), #7 Changing Colours (6), and #9 Very Sewreel (9) all map to find positions with cover in the running line. #2 Nana's Wish, returning from a spell, is likely to take a conservative midfield position from its good draw.
🐌Backmarkers
#12 Investment is the runner most likely to be restrained from the extreme outside barrier (13). The jockey will likely opt to find cover towards the rear of the field rather than risk being posted wide throughout.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
The rail is out +11m from the 1000m to the winning post and +8m for the remainder. This is a significant shift. It means the inside section of the track will have fresh ground, which can favour on-pace runners who draw well. However, with the rail this far out, the track can often play evenly, and it may neutralise the traditional inside bias. It can make it more difficult for horses to sweep around the field on the home turn, placing more emphasis on finding gaps and finishing strongly down the middle of the track.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
The track is a Soft (6), indicating significant give. This will make the 1800m a true test of stamina. A strong tempo on this surface will make it extremely difficult for the leaders to sustain their run to the finish. Horses that have to do work early, or those who are not proven on soft ground, will be found wanting late. This surface elevates the chances of strong finishers and proven wet-trackers who can handle the testing conditions.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The 1800m start at Randwick offers a long run down the back straight to the first turn, which does allow horses drawn wide a chance to find a position. However, for #3 Hasty Honey to cross from barrier 12 will require significant effort. A strong tempo up front will make the long Randwick home straight feel even longer, especially on rain-affected ground, giving those who have conserved energy a distinct advantage.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
As a Benchmark 78 Handicap for fillies and mares, this is a competitive race where many runners are well-exposed. The handicap conditions mean weights are relatively compressed, but the 5kg spread can still be telling on a soft track over a middle distance. Class and wet-track proficiency will be key differentiators.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
The combination of a predicted strong pace, the 1800m distance, and a Soft (6) track creates a scenario that will severely test stamina. The race shape is set up to favour runners who can secure an economical run in transit and produce a strong, sustained finish. The leaders who engage in an early speed battle are highly likely to be vulnerable over the final 200m. The race will likely develop into a staying contest where those with the most energy in reserve will come to the fore.
✅Most Advantaged
#10 Bright Red The map appears perfect for this mare. From barrier 1, she is set to receive the ideal box-seat run, conserving energy behind a strong tempo. She was held up for a run when finishing 2nd over this track and distance last start, suggesting she had more to give. On a testing track, this economical run is a major tactical advantage.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#3 Hasty Honey Faces a formidable task. She must be used up early from barrier 12 to find a forward position. To then absorb pressure in a strongly run race on a soft track is a recipe for fading in the straight. The race shape is set up entirely against her. #12 Investment also faces a difficult assignment from the widest barrier.
💰Betting Considerations
The analysis points towards opposing the on-pace runners who will be part of the speed battle, especially #3 Hasty Honey. The key is to find horses that map for a soft run and have proven ability on rain-affected going.
- Primary Strategy: Back horses that can settle midfield with cover and have a strong finish. #10 Bright Red is the standout from a mapping perspective and is a prime contender.
- Value Opportunities: #7 Changing Colours settles midfield, gets a good run from barrier 6, and has a strong record on soft ground. She could be overlooked in the market and represents good value. #6 Extraordinaire also maps well and comes off a last-start win.
- Risks: #3 Hasty Honey and #5 She's Unusual are significant risks due to the expected pace pressure. It will take a massive effort for either to win if they go head-to-head early. #2 Nana's Wish is a complete unknown factor returning without recent form and is too risky to consider.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Nana's Wish
Hasty Honey
Belle Savoir
She's Unusual
Extraordinaire
Changing Colours
Very Sewreel
Bright Red
Investment
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