ATC Thank You Owners (Bm72)
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 9 at Randwick
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
This race projects to have significant early pressure from multiple sources. A number of runners with natural tactical speed are drawn very wide and will be forced to push forward to avoid being trapped off the track. This creates a competitive battle for the lead and a prominent position, ensuring a solid tempo throughout.
🏃♂️Likely Positions In-Running
🥇Leaders
A likely speed duel is on the cards. #9 Royal Commodore and #3 Cassiel appear committed to going forward from their wide gates. They will likely be joined by #12 Regimental Colours pushing up from a middle barrier. Expect these three, along with #13 Break Free, to contest the lead, potentially settling in a line of two or three across the track.
🏃On-Pace/Handy
This is the golden position in this race. #7 Lordster is drawn perfectly in barrier 1 to take the box seat, saving ground behind the speed battle. #2 Shall Be will look to find a similar spot, one-off the fence with cover. #6 Core Concept will also push forward but risks being caught three-wide without cover from barrier 10.
🏃♂️Midfield
#5 Livin' Thing is drawn to get a perfect, economical run midfield on the fence. He should get plenty of cover. The two runners without recent form, #4 Zouprince and #14 Duke Of Bronte, are likely to land in this part of the field from their respective draws. #15 Zouripper will likely settle here or slightly worse, as is her pattern.
🐌Backmarkers
#11 Opal Fields is often slow to begin and will settle near the rear. #10 Rantan consistently gets back in his races, and the wide draw (13) ensures he will be in the last few runners settling down.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
The rail at +11m from the 1000m to the Winning Post is a crucial factor. This position significantly advantages horses racing on or near the speed. The turn becomes tighter, and the straight effectively becomes shorter, making it extremely difficult for backmarkers to make up the required ground. Leaders and on-pace runners who can save ground along the rail have a distinct tactical advantage. This setup will likely create a pronounced on-pace bias.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
The Soft (6) rating ensures the track will have significant give. This will take the brilliance out of pure speedsters and bring stamina to the forefront in the final 200m. The predicted strong early pace combined with the soft surface will make this a genuine test of fitness. Horses who have previously demonstrated a strong finishing ability on rain-affected ground are heavily favoured. The inside ground with the rail out so far should be in good condition, but the overall testing nature of the surface will make leaders vulnerable late if they've gone too hard.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The Randwick 1100m start is from a chute, providing a fair run to the home turn. This configuration gives horses with genuine speed a chance to cross from wider barriers. However, the long, sweeping turn means any horse that fails to find a position near the rail will cover significant extra ground. The Randwick home straight is long and testing, and on a Soft 6 surface, it will expose any chinks in a horse's stamina, especially if they have worked hard early.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
As a Benchmark 72 for 3 and 4-year-olds, this is a competitive race featuring progressive types. The handicap conditions are relatively compressed, meaning most are in with a chance on their best form. The inclusion of two runners resuming from spells, #4 Zouprince and #14 Duke Of Bronte, adds a layer of uncertainty, as their fitness and current racing pattern are unknown.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
This race presents a clear tactical picture. A strong tempo is almost guaranteed due to the number of on-pace runners drawn wide who must press forward. This, combined with the rail being out +11m, creates a scenario that heavily favours horses drawn inside barriers who can take a sit just behind the speed duel. The energy expended by the leaders early will likely leave them vulnerable in the final stages on the testing Soft 6 track. The race is set up perfectly for a horse to stalk the speed from an economical position and pounce at the top of the straight. Backmarkers, particularly those drawn wide, face an almost impossible task.
✅Most Advantaged
#7 Lordster (1) The map could not have unfolded better for this horse. From the inside barrier, he is guaranteed an energy-saving run in the box seat, stalking what should be a hot speed. He is a last-start winner on a Soft 7 track, proving his capability in the conditions. He can wait for the leaders to tire and be presented with a run in the straight. He gets all the favours.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#3 Cassiel (15) and #9 Royal Commodore (14). Both possess the speed to be competitive but are crucified by their wide barriers. They will have to burn considerable energy to establish a forward position and are at high risk of being caught wide or simply doing too much work to be able to finish the race off strongly on the soft ground. #10 Rantan (13) is also severely disadvantaged; his get-back style from a wide gate on a track with the rail out +11m is a recipe for being too far back to challenge.
💰Betting Considerations
The analysis points towards a clear betting strategy. Focus should be on horses drawn to get an economical, on-pace run.
- Primary Bet: #7 Lordster profiles as the most likely winner based on the tactical advantages he receives from the barrier draw and pace setup. He represents a strong bet.
- Value/Exotics: #5 Livin' Thing is another horse set to receive a perfect run from barrier 2. His last start was full of excuses (disappointed for a run), and he can be a major improver here at a potential price. Including him in exotic bets is recommended.
- Risks: Be extremely cautious of the main speed influences drawn wide: #3 Cassiel, #9 Royal Commodore, and #13 Break Free. While talented, the race shape is strongly against them, and they look like prime candidates to be under the odds. Similarly, backmarkers like #10 Rantan and #11 Opal Fields appear to be facing an insurmountable task.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Shall Be
Cassiel
Zouprince
Livin' Thing
Core Concept
Lordster
Royal Commodore
Rantan
Opal Fields
Regimental Colours
Break Free
Duke Of Bronte
Zouripper
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