Pat 'silver Kiwi' Kearns Memorial Mdn Plate
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 4 at Ballarat Synthetic
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
The map points to a moderately run race. There is only one dedicated leader, with a couple of others who can sit handy but are unlikely to press for the front with any great vigour. The 2100m distance will also encourage jockeys to settle their mounts rather than burn energy early. - **#7 Rang A Round Up:** Is the clear, designated leader. Showed this pattern at Sale last start over 2200m when leading all the way to run second. From barrier 8, Jacob Noonan will be positive and look to cross and dictate terms. - **#1 Bernie Beel:** Has led over further in the past. From barrier 4, has the option to press forward and sit outside the leader or take a trail, but is unlikely to engage in a speed battle. - **#12 Tosen Snowfall:** Can be keen and has raced on-pace. From barrier 7, Craig Newitt will likely look to slot in one-off with cover, just behind the speed, rather than push on.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
The rail is in the True position. On the Ballarat Synthetic track, this is the standard and fairest setup. The surface provides a consistent footing across the track, meaning there is no inherent advantage or disadvantage to being on the rail versus being wider out. Play should be even.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
The race is on the synthetic surface, which nullifies the impact of weather. The track will race consistently regardless of any rain, providing a true and reliable surface. This removes variables like a track chopping out or a bias developing towards a particular part of the track, ensuring a fair contest based on horse ability on this specific surface.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The 2100m start at Ballarat provides a long run down the back straight before the first major turn, which significantly mitigates the importance of barrier draws. This allows horses drawn wider, like #7 Rang A Round Up, ample opportunity to cross and find a position without being rushed. The long, sweeping home turn allows horses to build momentum, but the synthetic surface can often favour those who have conserved energy on or near the pace. The distance will be a true stamina test for these maidens.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
This is a Maiden Plate, meaning it is contested by non-winners at set weights. The form can be unreliable and horses are often still learning. The 2100m distance will expose any runners who are not genuine stayers. The moderate tempo often seen in these types of races can make it difficult for backmarkers to make up the required ground in the straight.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
The race is likely to be controlled from the front by #7 Rang A Round Up. The predicted moderate pace will make this a tactical affair, likely developing into a sprint home from the 600m mark. This scenario heavily favours horses positioned on or near the speed, as they can kick on the turn and establish a winning break. Backmarkers will find it extremely difficult to make an impact unless the pace unexpectedly intensifies mid-race or they make an early, sustained run.
✅Most Advantaged
#7 Rang A Round Up The speed map gifts this horse tactical control of the race. It is the sole designated leader and its last-start performance, where it led and was only narrowly beaten over 2200m, is the perfect platform. If Jacob Noonan can establish an easy lead and dictate a moderate tempo, it will be the horse they all have to catch.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#3 Gauthier This horse faces a formidable task. Its tendency to be slowly away combined with a get-back racing pattern from barrier 1 is a recipe for being shuffled back along the rail with nowhere to go. In a moderately run race, it will be spotting the leaders a huge start and will require a significant amount of luck to find clear running in the straight. #6 Quick Qudos is similarly disadvantaged by its pattern, likely having to circle the field from the back.
💰Betting Considerations
- Primary Bet: #7 Rang A Round Up is the most logical bet based on the tactical map. It gets control, is fit, and comes off a strong last-start performance over a similar trip. It represents a high-probability scenario.
- Value/Exotics: #12 Tosen Snowfall looks well-placed to run a strong race. It can sit on the speed, gets a key jockey change to Craig Newitt, and has shown enough to be competitive. It can be included in exotics with the leader. #4 Grunnettan could fill a place from its good draw and handy position.
- Risks: Avoid backmarkers #3 Gauthier and #6 Quick Qudos. The race shape is strongly against them, and they would need the pace to collapse, which appears unlikely. They represent poor value.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Bernie Beel
Gauthier
Grunnettan
Quick Qudos
Rang A Round Up
Tosen Snowfall
Last Summer
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