Community Bank Coleraine & District Hwt (58)
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 5 at Casterton
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
The map indicates significant pressure for the lead. There are two designated leaders, and two other on-pace runners are drawn in wide barriers, which will force them to press forward to avoid being caught deep. This combination almost guarantees a contested and demanding early tempo.
🏃♂️Likely Positions In-Running
🥇Leaders
A duel for the front is expected between #8 Royal Telephone from the inside and #7 Fall Of Rome. Royal Telephone has the barrier advantage to hold the rail, likely forcing Fall Of Rome to sit at its girth.
🏃On-Pace/Handy
#2 Crackle 'n' Burn is drawn perfectly in barrier 3 to take the box seat directly behind the leaders. From wide gates, #10 Tauri and #6 Brazen Brando will be forced to push forward and will likely settle one-off and potentially three-wide, applying pressure.
🏃♂️Midfield
#3 Gusmao draws to get an economical run midfield on the fence from barrier 1. #9 What A Flirt will likely settle just behind them, one-off the rail. #4 Thunderanlightning and #12 Penwortham are expected to be in the second half of the field.
🐌Backmarkers
#11 Alpinova is a natural closer and will settle near the rear of the field. #5 Sky Royale, returning from a long layoff, is also expected to be ridden conservatively and get back.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
With the rail in the True position, the track should play fairly. An inside draw is typically an advantage for an economical run. However, on a Soft 7 surface, the inside lanes can become worn as the meeting progresses. Jockeys on backmarkers will be looking to peel out to the centre of the track in the straight to find what they perceive to be the superior ground.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
The official Soft 7 rating is critical. This will be a genuinely tiring track that demands stamina and a proven ability to handle wet going. The strong predicted pace will be amplified by the conditions, making it extremely difficult for leaders to sustain their effort to the finish line. The race is set up perfectly for horses that can handle the ground and finish with a strong, sustained run from off the pace. Any further rain would exacerbate this, turning it into a true slog.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The 1200m start at Casterton provides a fair run into the home turn, allowing horses time to find their position. However, the predicted strong pace means any runners caught wide on the turn will have done significant work. The long Casterton home straight (approx. 400m) is a key factor; it will provide ample opportunity for closers to run on, especially if the leaders have overexerted themselves on the testing ground.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
This is a Benchmark 58 Highweight race, a low-grade contest where form can be inconsistent. The strong pace is less of a certainty than in a Group race, but the presence of multiple natural leaders makes it highly probable. The Highweight condition means all horses carry significant weight, which will further test their stamina on the soft ground, especially late in the race.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
This race projects to have a strong and contested tempo, creating a high-pressure environment. The combination of this pace on a demanding Soft 7 track makes the leaders highly vulnerable. The tactical advantage will shift decisively to runners who can obtain an energy-saving run in behind the speed and possess a strong finishing burst on wet ground. The long Casterton straight will give these horses every chance to overhaul the tiring front-runners.
✅Most Advantaged
#2 Crackle 'n' Burn appears to have the perfect tactical setup. From barrier 3, jockey Gary Walsh can elect to take the ideal box-seat trail behind a hot speed duel. This will allow the horse to conserve energy on the testing ground before being produced at the top of the straight with a clear shot at the leaders. Its form shows it can handle soft going.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#10 Tauri faces a formidable task. Drawn in barrier 12, its on-pace pattern means it must be pushed forward, risking being trapped three or four wide without cover for the entire race. Burning that much energy early on a Soft 7 track is a recipe for fading badly in the straight. #6 Brazen Brando (11) is in a similar, difficult position, while the leaders #7 Fall Of Rome and #8 Royal Telephone risk cooking each other in front.
💰Betting Considerations
The race shape strongly suggests opposing the horses involved in the early speed battle, particularly those drawn wide like #10 Tauri and #6 Brazen Brando. The value lies with runners who map to get a soft run and have proven wet track credentials. #2 Crackle 'n' Burn is the logical top selection based on the map. #3 Gusmao from barrier 1 is another that should get an economical run and could represent value if it handles the conditions. For wider exotic bets, a strong closer like #11 Alpinova is worth including, as the race is set to be run to suit backmarkers.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Crackle 'n' Burn
Gusmao
Thunderanlightning
Sky Royale
Brazen Brando
Fall Of Rome
Royal Telephone
What A Flirt
Tauri
Alpinova
Penwortham
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