Casterton/ Sandford F/N Club 150 Years Hwt (58)

With the rail in the True position, the track should play fairly in the early races. However, on a Soft 7 surface, the inside section of the track is susceptible to becoming chopped up as the day progresses. This could lead to a potential bias where jockeys search for firmer ground wider in the straight. Runners who save ground on the fence might find themselves on inferior going late, potentially advantaging those who can sweep down the centre of the track.

The Soft 7 rating is a critical factor. It will blunt the speed of runners who prefer a firm surface and significantly enhance the chances of proven wet-track performers. The combination of the testing ground and the uphill finish will place a premium on stamina. The genuine pace will stretch the field out, and horses that can sustain a long run and power through the heavy going will be strongly favoured. Backmarkers will have a chance to run on if the leaders feel the pinch of the conditions late.

The 1400m start at Casterton provides a fair run to the first turn, which allows horses drawn wider some chance to cross. However, the defining feature is the long, testing uphill home straight. On a Soft 7 track, this straight becomes a significant test of stamina. Any horse that over-exerts in the early or middle stages will be found wanting late. The genuine pace predicted will ensure this is a true 1400m contest, playing into the hands of strong, fit horses.

This is a Restricted 58 Highweight handicap. The lower class suggests form can be inconsistent, but the high weights (all 65.0kg and above) are a great leveller. This adds another layer to the stamina test, particularly on the soft ground. Horses that have previously performed well under big weights and in testing conditions have a distinct advantage over those who are unproven in these circumstances.