Power FM (Bm58)

The rail at +7m with a cutaway is a critical factor. This configuration typically shifts the racing pattern away from the inside part of the track in the straight, which can be inferior ground on a heavy rating. The cutaway provides a significant advantage for horses who have saved ground on the fence around the turn. They can get a clear, unimpeded run up the fresh ground on the inside, while horses fanning wide are covering more ground. This can turn a potentially tricky inside draw into a winning position.

A Heavy (8) rating makes this a true test of stamina. The predicted strong pace will be extremely taxing, making it very difficult for front-runners to sustain their effort to the finish line. The race will be set up for horses with proven wet-track credentials and a strong finishing burst. The track will likely chop out, placing emphasis on jockeys finding the best lanes in the straight, with the cutaway and paths wider off the fence likely to be superior. Horses without a proven record on significantly rain-affected ground are at a major disadvantage.

The 1280m start at Muswellbrook provides a fair run to the sweeping home turn. This allows horses drawn wide with speed, like #14 Pee Dee, a chance to cross. However, the long, grinding home straight is a significant challenge, especially when the pace has been strong. Leaders who have over-exerted themselves are often vulnerable to swoopers in the final 200m. This effect will be amplified on a Heavy 8 surface.

As a Benchmark 58 handicap, the field consists of horses with inconsistent form. While the pace map appears clear, tactics in these grades can sometimes be unpredictable. The top weight, #2 Vierville, carries a significant 62.5kg, which will be a major burden on the heavy track, especially if involved in the early speed. This provides a distinct advantage to lighter-weighted runners who can handle the conditions.