tab.com.au Mdn Plate
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 3 at Kempsey
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
This race is comprised entirely of first-starters, which introduces significant uncertainty to the speed map. Jockeys are often conservative on debutants, particularly on a Heavy (9) track, preferring to let them find their rhythm rather than forcing the issue. There are no established leaders in the field. The pace will likely be dictated by whichever horse naturally travels best in the conditions or whose jockey elects to take initiative from a good barrier. The heavy going will naturally ensure the overall time is slow and a high-pressure tempo is highly improbable. - **#14 All Too Silent:** From a low draw, has the option to press forward and potentially take up the running without spending significant energy. - **#12 Kirkall:** Also drawn well and is a candidate to settle in a prominent on-pace position, potentially sharing the lead. - **#9 Torque Ti Amo:** From the extreme outside barrier (14), the rider has little choice but to restrain the horse and settle near the rear to avoid being trapped wide, thus is unlikely to contribute to the early pace.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
With the rail in the True position on a Heavy (9) track, the inside section of the track is at risk of becoming chopped up and inferior ground as the meeting progresses. While drawing an inside gate is advantageous for saving ground, jockeys may look to steer their mounts a few lanes off the fence upon straightening to find what they perceive to be a better strip of ground. This can negate some of the initial advantage of an inside draw if the rail is indeed a "no-go" zone.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
The Heavy (9) rating is the single most significant factor in this race. The surface will demand genuine stamina and a liking for wet ground. The pace will be significantly slower than on a dry track, turning the 1250m into a real test of endurance. Horses who cannot handle the going will struggle to travel and will be under pressure a long way from home. Conversely, any debutant with a natural aptitude for heavy tracks will have a decisive advantage. The race shape will favour horses that can travel comfortably on the bridle near the speed, conserving energy for the final, grinding 300m.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The 1250m start at Kempsey provides a fair run of approximately 350m to the first turn. This is typically enough time for positions to be established. However, on a Heavy (9) track, any horse attempting to cross from a wide barrier will be severely taxed. The Kempsey home straight is relatively short (around 350m), which generally favours horses positioned on or near the pace. Making up substantial ground from the rear will be exceptionally difficult in these conditions, as leaders may not be stopping as quickly in a moderately run race, and the ground is energy-sapping for closers.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
As a Maiden Plate for debutants, the race is highly unpredictable. The speed map is purely speculative and based on barrier draws rather than established racing patterns. There is no exposed form to assess the relative ability of the runners. Success will come down to a combination of raw talent, professionalism on race day, and, crucially, an ability to handle the demanding Heavy (9) conditions.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
The race is set to be run at a slow to moderate tempo, dictated by horses drawn to advantage. The combination of the Heavy (9) track and the relatively short home straight creates a significant tactical advantage for runners who can settle on-pace without spending energy. It will be extremely difficult for horses that get back or are trapped wide to make an impact. The key to this race will be handling the ground and securing an economical run in the first half of the field.
✅Most Advantaged
#14 All Too Silent and #12 Kirkall. Both are drawn ideally (barriers 4 and 5) to land in the first few positions with minimal effort. This allows their jockeys to dictate terms or take a perfect sit, conserving vital energy on the heavy surface. They will be in a striking position at the top of the short straight, giving them the best possible chance to win if they handle the conditions.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#9 Torque Ti Amo. Drawn in the outside barrier (14), this horse faces an unenviable task. The options are to either burn excessive energy pressing forward on a heavy track or be snagged to the rear of the field. From the back, making up the necessary ground in the short straight on this testing surface is a low-probability scenario. #2 Sources Link (13) and #3 The Big Ticket (12) are also significantly disadvantaged by their wide draws.
💰Betting Considerations
This is a very high-risk betting race due to all runners being on debut. The analysis points to a strong advantage for horses drawn inside gates.
- Primary Focus: Any market intelligence (significant betting support) or positive trial information (especially on wet ground) for horses drawn in barriers 1-5 should be weighed heavily. These runners have the tactical map in their favour.
- High Risk: Betting on any horse from a wide barrier (9+) is a significant risk. They would need to be demonstrably superior to their rivals to overcome the map disadvantage on a heavy track.
- Value Strategy: Look for horses with strong wet-track breeding. A horse bred for the wet drawn a good barrier presents the most logical profile, even without exposed form. The most advantaged horses on the map (#14, #12, #1) are the place to start, pending market and trial information.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Power Through
Sources Link
The Big Ticket
Magic They Say
Torque Ti Amo
Kirkall
Lolita
All Too Silent
Ready for an Edge?
Join our free newsletter for expert analysis and data-backed selections delivered every Wednesday and Saturday.