De Bortoli Wines (Bm58)
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 5 at Kempsey
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
The 1000m distance naturally encourages speed from the barriers. Several factors point towards a genuine tempo. * **#7 Love And Light:** Drawn the coveted inside barrier, it has every incentive to kick up and hold the lead to avoid being crossed. * **#2 Written Fame:** Drawn wide in barrier 10, its best chance to feature is to press forward and try to cross the field, rather than risk being caught wide without cover. This will inject significant pressure. * **#10 Abrazen Laugh & #14 Mofeed:** Both are drawn well in barriers 4 and 3 respectively and are expected to be prominent, adding to the congestion at the front and ensuring the leaders don't get a cheap sectional. The lack of recent form for all runners adds an element of unpredictability, but the race dynamics for a 1000m sprint strongly suggest a contested lead.
🏃♂️Likely Positions In-Running
🥇Leaders
#7 Love And Light is the most likely to attempt to lead from the rails draw. It will face pressure from the wider-drawn #2 Written Fame, which may be forced to push forward early.
🏃On-Pace/Handy
A key group will settle just behind the speed. #8 Loving Angel (barrier 2), #14 Mofeed (barrier 3), and #10 Abrazen Laugh (barrier 4) are all drawn to take ideal trailing positions, potentially in the box seat or one-off the rail. #1 October Revolution from gate 6 with a positive jockey in Aaron Bullock will likely be urged forward to find a handy spot.
🏃♂️Midfield
#9 Skates On (7) and #11 Helen's Crown (9) are likely to look for cover in a midfield position, hoping the pace is strong enough to allow them to run on. #13 Zartamay (5) has a soft draw to land in a comfortable midfield spot with cover.
🐌Backmarkers
#12 Time And Rhythm from barrier 8 may be eased at the start to find a position towards the rear, especially if there is a scramble for forward positions early.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
With the rail in the True position, the shortest way home is along the fence. Early in the meeting, this can be an advantage. However, on a Heavy (9) track, the inside section can become chopped up and inferior as the day progresses. While saving ground around the turn is crucial over 1000m, jockeys in the straight may look to steer their mounts several lanes off the rail in search of less-worn, firmer ground. This could give an advantage to horses that settle one or two off the fence over the rail-hugging leader late in the race.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
The Heavy (9) rating is the single most critical factor. This will turn a 1000m sprint into a true test of stamina. The ground will dull pure speed and make it extremely difficult for horses to sustain a long run or accelerate quickly from the back. The pace may be genuine to the 400m, but it will likely slow dramatically in the home straight as stamina gives out. Proven wet track ability is paramount. Horses who cannot handle the going will be uncompetitive regardless of their position in the run. The top weight, #1 October Revolution, faces a monumental task carrying 66.0kg on this surface.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The 1000m start at Kempsey is from a chute on the side of the course, featuring a relatively short run before a sweeping home turn. This configuration heavily favours horses with early speed that can establish a forward position from inside barriers. Those drawn wide must either expend significant energy to cross or risk being caught deep around the turn, covering extra ground. The straight is not overly long, meaning horses that are too far back turning for home face a difficult task to make up the required ground, a challenge magnified on a heavy surface.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
As a Benchmark 58 handicap, the field is comprised of horses at a modest level of ability, which can sometimes lead to more unpredictability in pace and performance. The large weight spread, from 66.0kg down to 53.5kg, will be exaggerated by the Heavy (9) track. Lighter-weighted horses who can handle the conditions will have a significant advantage over those burdened with big weights. The lack of exposed recent form for the entire field makes this analysis highly speculative and reliant on fundamental race dynamics.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
This race projects to have a genuine tempo, with pressure from both inside and outside barriers. The Heavy (9) track is the dominant factor, placing the emphasis squarely on stamina and proven ability in the conditions over raw speed. The race shape should favour horses positioned on-pace who can handle the ground, save energy from a good draw, and present at the top of the straight with a kick. Backmarkers face a near-impossible task given the track, distance, and likely race shape. The race will likely be won by the fittest horse who gets the most economical run near the front.
✅Most Advantaged
#7 Love And Light and #14 Mofeed. Both are drawn ideally in barriers 1 and 3 respectively to take up forward, ground-saving positions without spending excess energy. This allows their jockeys to rate them perfectly into the straight and kick on the best ground. If they handle the heavy going, their map position gives them a significant tactical edge.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#1 October Revolution and #2 Written Fame. October Revolution's task looks herculean under 66.0kg on a Heavy (9) surface; the weight will feel like an anchor in the final 200m. Written Fame is drawn the widest in barrier 10 and is forced to either burn energy to cross the field or get caught deep, both of which are low-percentage plays on this track and over this distance.
💰Betting Considerations
Given the complete absence of recent form, any betting approach must be treated with extreme caution. The primary filter should be proven performance on Heavy tracks. The speed map strongly suggests focusing on horses drawn inside barrier 6 that are expected to race on-pace. These runners have the best chance of securing an energy-saving run. There is significant risk associated with the top weight, #1 October Revolution, and any runner drawn wide. Value could lie with a well-drawn, lightweight horse like #10 Abrazen Laugh (4) or #7 Love And Light (1), provided they have any aptitude for the demanding conditions. The race is a minefield, and a "watch" approach may be the most prudent strategy.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
October Revolution
Written Fame
Love And Light
Loving Angel
Skates On
Abrazen Laugh
Helen's Crown
Time And Rhythm
Zartamay
Mofeed
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