WIN Network (Bm58)

With the rail in the True position on a Heavy (9) track, the inside section is the shortest way home but is at significant risk of becoming chopped up and inferior ground as the meeting progresses. Early in the race, saving ground on the rail is an advantage. However, in the straight, jockeys will likely be searching for firmer footing wider out. Horses that can save ground on the turn before angling out into better going will be advantaged.

The Heavy (9) rating is the single most dominant factor. This will be a true test of stamina, and the ability to handle deep, rain-affected ground is paramount. The pace will feel more demanding than it is on paper, and it will significantly dull the finishing speed of most runners. Leaders who over-exert early will be extremely vulnerable late. Horses with proven form on Heavy tracks will have a decisive advantage over those who are unproven or dislike wet going. The emphasis shifts from speed to pure strength and staying power.

The 1450m start at Kempsey provides a run of approximately 300m to the first bend. This is a crucial part of the race; it's long enough for horses with speed to cross, but short enough to severely punish those caught wide. Navigating this first turn successfully is key. The track features a long back straight before a final turn into a shorter home straight of around 350m. This configuration tends to favour horses that are positioned on-pace or midfield turning for home, as it can be difficult for backmarkers to make up significant ground in the straight, especially on a tiring Heavy surface.

As a Benchmark 58 handicap, this race features horses of a similar, lower-tier ability. Tactics can often be unpredictable. The weight spread from 61.0kg down to 54.5kg is significant. On a Heavy (9) track, every kilogram feels heavier, giving a potential advantage to the lighter-weighted runners who can skip through the ground more easily, assuming they possess the required strength.