Flower Hotels Country Boosted Hcp (C1)
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 7 at Kempsey
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
This map is highly speculative due to the lack of available recent form for any runner. The pace prediction is based primarily on barrier draws and general race dynamics for a Country Class 1. Several horses drawn wide may be forced to press forward to avoid being caught deep, which could inject some early speed. However, on a Heavy (9) track, jockeys will be acutely aware of conserving energy, which will likely temper the desire to burn excessive fuel early. The result should be a moderate tempo, not overly fast, but with enough pressure to ensure the race is run truly.
🏃♂️Likely Positions In-Running
🥇Leaders
#5 Marine Girl is the most likely to press forward from the wide gate. It's possible #10 Felasuvi also pushes on from its awkward draw to try and find a spot on pace.
🏃On-Pace/Handy
A crucial group that will look to get an ideal run. #14 Risk Assessment is drawn to get the box seat run behind the leader. #9 Starlacca, #3 Yareakh, and #13 Rock Are Steiner have all drawn favourably to land in the first four or five, trailing the speed one-off the rail.
🏃♂️Midfield
This will be the largest group. #1 Champonnet and #4 Highland Eightgee should be able to find positions with cover from their middle draws. #6 Reel Torque will likely look to slot in from its wide gate, aiming for a spot three-wide with cover. #11 Bondi Prophet will likely settle mid-pack or slightly worse.
🐌Backmarkers
By necessity, horses drawn extremely wide with jockeys who may opt to go to 'Plan B' will settle back. #12 Venom Wolf (15) and #17 Sweden (17) face a monumental task from their barriers and are the most likely to be restrained early to find cover at the rear of the field.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
With the rail in the True position on a Heavy (9) surface, the inside section of the track is at risk of significant wear and tear as the meeting progresses. While saving ground is always important, particularly at Kempsey, jockeys may look to edge off the fence upon straightening to find what they perceive to be superior, less-chopped-up ground. This could lead to fanning in the straight and potentially give an advantage to those who have settled one or two off the rail, allowing them the first crack at the better going.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
The Heavy (9) rating is the single most dominant factor in this race. The ground will be genuinely testing and will make the 1250m feel like 1400m or further. Stamina and a proven ability to handle wet ground will be paramount. The pace will feel more taxing, and horses that are pushed too hard early will be vulnerable to tiring late. Horses who can travel comfortably in the going and produce a sustained grinding run will be heavily favoured over those with a sharp, short sprint. Any on-pace advantage is mitigated by the energy sapped by the heavy ground.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The 1250m start at Kempsey provides a relatively short run of approximately 300m to the first turn. This is a significant factor, as it places horses drawn wide at a distinct disadvantage if they don't possess enough early speed to cross the field. Those caught wide on this turn will cover significant extra ground. The track itself is a tighter country circuit, which generally favours horses racing on or near the pace who can save ground on the turns. The short straight puts pressure on backmarkers to make their runs early and sustain them.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
As a Country Boosted Class 1, the field consists of horses still learning their trade. This introduces a high degree of unpredictability. Speed maps can be unreliable as horses may not repeat previous patterns, miss the start, or show unexpected speed. The handicap conditions mean weights are compressed, placing less emphasis on weight and more on the horse's ability, fitness, and handling of the track conditions.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
This race will be a true test of stamina on the Heavy (9) track. The moderate pace, combined with the taxing ground, will likely favour horses who can obtain an energy-efficient run in the first half of the field. The key will be saving ground around the turn without getting trapped on a potentially inferior inside strip in the straight. Horses pressing forward from wide gates like #5 Marine Girl risk using too much energy, setting the race up for a horse that enjoys a cosier run just behind the speed.
✅Most Advantaged
#3 Yareakh (3). From an ideal low barrier, Shae Wilkes can position this horse on the back of the leaders, saving crucial ground and energy. If it handles the heavy track, it is poised to get the perfect trail into the race and be presented at the top of the straight with every chance. #9 Starlacca (2) and #14 Risk Assessment (1) are in similar advantageous positions.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#17 Sweden (17). The outside barrier over this distance at Kempsey is a significant negative. The horse will either be forced to snag back to last, leaving it with an enormous task on a tiring track, or be caught extremely wide without cover, which is a recipe for finishing unplaced on heavy ground. #12 Venom Wolf (15) and #10 Felasuvi (14) face similar difficult tactical maps.
💰Betting Considerations
Given the complete absence of exposed form and the challenging Heavy (9) conditions, this is a race with extreme uncertainty and high risk. The primary betting strategy should revolve around the tactical advantages conferred by the barrier draw.
- Focus: Horses drawn in barriers 1-5 have a significant statistical and tactical advantage. They can save ground and energy, which is gold on a heavy track. #3 Yareakh, #9 Starlacca, and #14 Risk Assessment fit this profile and are the logical starting point for any analysis.
- Risk: Avoid horses drawn in the double-digit barriers unless there is a strong reason (e.g., confirmed wet track ability and tactical speed) to believe they can overcome the draw. The risk of being caught wide and doing too much work is simply too high.
- Value: Value could lie with a horse like #4 Highland Eightgee from a middle gate, who might be overlooked but can find a good spot with cover in midfield and finish off if the on-pace runners overdo it. The key to this race is identifying runners with any prior wet track exposure or a pedigree that suggests they will handle the conditions.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Champonnet (7)
Yareakh (3)
Highland Eightgee (5)
Marine Girl (11)
Reel Torque (10)
Starlacca (2)
Felasuvi (14)
Bondi Prophet (8)
Venom Wolf (15)
Rock Are Steiner (4)
Risk Assessment (1)
Sweden (17)
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