Carlton Dry (Bm58)

With the rail in the True position on a Heavy (9) track, the inside section is at high risk of being significantly chopped up and becoming inferior ground by this stage of the day. While drawing inside is an advantage for saving ground early, jockeys may actively look to scout for firmer going wider out in the straight. This could potentially neutralise the advantage of the rails draw in the final 200m and bring wider runners into play if they've had a more economical run.

The Heavy (9) rating is the single most dominant factor in this race. It will ensure a true test of stamina, making the 1250m feel closer to 1400m. The tempo will be naturally dampened as jockeys prioritise energy conservation. Horses without proven ability on severely rain-affected ground will be at a significant disadvantage. Fitness will be paramount, and any horse that over-races or covers extra ground will struggle to finish the race off.

The 1250m start at Kempsey provides a fair run to the first turn, but the circuit itself is relatively tight. Being caught wide is a distinct disadvantage, particularly on a heavy surface where every extra metre covered is magnified. The straight is not excessively long, meaning it is difficult for backmarkers to make up substantial ground, placing an emphasis on tactical position and saving ground around the home turn.

As a Benchmark 58 handicap, the field consists of horses of moderate and often inconsistent ability. The complete absence of recent form for all runners introduces extreme unreliability and makes this map highly speculative. The race is likely to be won by the horse that handles the heavy conditions best and receives the most economical run in transit, rather than by sheer class.