Pakenham SyntheticRace 31400m

Frankston Sand Soil & Mini Mix Mdn Plate

Race 3 Speedmap - Pakenham Synthetic

Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 3 at Pakenham Synthetic

🏁Race Details

🏆
Race
Frankston Sand Soil & Mini Mix Mdn Plate
🏅
Class
2yo+ Maiden;
⏱️
Distance
1400m
🏟️
Track
Pakenham Synthetic

🏁Speed Map Visualisation

Predicted race positioning and tactical setup

Start
Finish (1400m)
LEADERS
13
Dickens
Expected to set the pace
ON-PACE
5
Brazen Fling
7
Fearless Monarch
10
Star Angel
Handy position, tactical flexibility
MIDFIELD
4
Black Cherry
9
Hot Miss
11
Angel's Gathering
14
Hula Dance
Mid-pack, cover required
BACKMARKERS
1
Devil's Craft
3
Positivo
8
Gypsy Roma
15
Twin Fox
Back of field, need tempo

⏱️Pace Analysis

GENUINE.
Race tempo prediction based on field analysis

The map points towards a genuinely run race. There is a clear, designated leader, but significant pressure is expected to come from runners drawn in wider barriers who possess tactical speed. This combination should ensure a solid tempo from the outset, preventing a slow, sit-and-sprint affair. - **#13 Dickens:** Showed clear intent to lead over this track and distance last start and is the most likely to take up the running again. - **#10 Star Angel:** Was sent forward to sit second from a wide gate last start and will likely adopt similar tactics here from barrier 13 to avoid being caught wide. - **#7 Fearless Monarch:** Consistently races on-pace and from barrier 10 will need to press forward to find a handy position, adding to the early pressure. - **#5 Brazen Fling:** From barrier 16, has little choice but to either push on or drop out to last. Given its tendency to overrace, pushing forward seems a plausible tactic, which would inject further pace.

🛤️Rail Position Impact

With the rail in the True position on the synthetic surface, the track should play evenly. There is no inherent advantage to being on the rail versus being wider out. The main consideration is kickback; horses buried on the fence behind the leaders may resent the surface being kicked back in their face, which can cause them to race ungenerously or fail to finish off. A clear run in the straight is paramount.

🌦️Track Condition & Weather

As a synthetic track, the surface condition is controlled and consistent, removing variables like rain or track downgrades. The race will be run on a standard synthetic surface. Individual preferences for the surface are key; horses with proven form on synthetic tracks (e.g., #13 Dickens, #3 Positivo) hold an advantage over those who have not handled it or are trying it for the first time. The genuine tempo will place a premium on stamina and a horse's ability to sustain a strong gallop on this surface.

📏Track & Distance Factors

The 1400m start at Pakenham provides a long, fair run of approximately 600m to the first turn. This gives horses drawn wide, like #7 Fearless Monarch and #10 Star Angel, a legitimate opportunity to cross over and find a forward position without being rushed off their feet. The long home straight is a key feature, ensuring that if the genuine pace eventuates, backmarkers who are good enough will have ample time to run on, provided they are in touch at the home turn.

🏁Race Conditions Impact

This is a Maiden Plate, meaning all runners carry set weights (with allowances for fillies/mares). This tends to favour the more naturally talented horses who are not penalised for strong recent form. However, the maiden class also introduces significant unreliability. Horses are inexperienced, prone to racing greenly, and their form can be inconsistent. Speed maps in these races are therefore less predictable, as a horse could easily miss the start or show unexpected early speed.

🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis

The race is set to be run at a genuine tempo, dictated by #13 Dickens and the pressure applied by the wide-drawn on-pacers #7 Fearless Monarch and #10 Star Angel. This race shape will test the endurance of those pushing forward and should ensure the race doesn't develop into a sprint home from the 600m mark. It creates a scenario where horses getting an economical, covered run just off the speed will be perfectly placed to strike at the top of the straight. Strong finishers from midfield or further back will also be brought into play if the leaders tire.

Most Advantaged

#9 Hot Miss The map could not be more perfect. From barrier 5, a top jockey in Jamie Kah can elect to position the horse exactly where she wants, most likely in the 'one-one' or settling with cover in the first four or five. With a genuine speed battle unfolding ahead, she can conserve energy and be presented with a clear shot at them in the long home straight.

Most Disadvantaged

#5 Brazen Fling Drawing barrier 16 is a nightmare scenario. The horse either has to do a significant amount of work to press forward, likely being trapped at least three-wide without cover, or be restrained to the tail of the field. Both options severely compromise its winning chances, especially given its tendency to be keen in its races. #10 Star Angel also faces a tough task but has shown it can overcome a wide draw.

💰Betting Considerations

The analysis points to a race where tactical position and an economical run will be critical.

  • Key Positives: Horses drawn for a soft run, like #9 Hot Miss, are strategically advantaged.
  • Key Risks: Runners who must work hard from wide gates, particularly #5 Brazen Fling and to a lesser extent #10 Star Angel and #7 Fearless Monarch, are vulnerable to tiring late. The leader, #13 Dickens, could also be a risk at short odds due to the expected pressure.
  • Value Opportunities: The genuine tempo may set the race up for a strong finisher. A horse like #11 Angel's Gathering, who finished strongly on debut, or #3 Positivo, who has consistent form and handles the surface, could offer value if they can navigate a path from the back half of the field. They will get their chance to run on.

Important: A Note on AI Analysis

Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.

Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.

🐎Individual Runner Analysis

Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning

1

Devil's Craft

Horse #1
BACKMARKER
Predicted Position: Backmarker
3

Positivo

Horse #3
MIDFIELD/BACKMARKER
Predicted Position: Midfield/Backmarker
4

Black Cherry

Horse #4
MIDFIELD
Predicted Position: Midfield
5

Brazen Fling

Horse #5
TACTICAL/ON-PACE
Predicted Position: Tactical/On-Pace
7

Fearless Monarch

Horse #7
ON-PACE
Predicted Position: On-Pace
8

Gypsy Roma

Horse #8
BACKMARKER (FIRST STARTER)
Predicted Position: Backmarker (First Starter)
9

Hot Miss

Horse #9
MIDFIELD
Predicted Position: Midfield
10

Star Angel

Horse #10
ON-PACE
Predicted Position: On-Pace
11

Angel's Gathering

Horse #11
MIDFIELD
Predicted Position: Midfield
13

Dickens

Horse #13
LEADER
Predicted Position: Leader
14

Hula Dance

Horse #14
MIDFIELD
Predicted Position: Midfield
15

Twin Fox

Horse #15
BACKMARKER
Predicted Position: Backmarker

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