Sportsbet Fast Form (Bm64)
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 5 at Pakenham Synthetic
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
The presence of a confirmed leader in #3 Three Point Turn ensures an honest tempo from the outset. Further pressure is expected from several runners who possess tactical speed and have drawn well, or need to press forward from wider out. This combination should prevent a slowly run race and ensure a true test over the 1000m.
🏃♂️Likely Positions In-Running
🥇Leaders
#3 Three Point Turn is the most probable outright leader. It has the best recent gate speed in the field and will be sent forward from barrier 5.
🏃On-Pace/Handy
This will be a contested position. #7 Night Flash (barrier 3) and #4 Bring Me Power (barrier 4) are drawn to get perfect runs trailing the speed. #5 Over Shady will use barrier 1 to kick up and hold a spot on the fence, potentially three back. #1 Dio will likely be forced to work across from gate 7 and sit parked outside the on-pace runners, possibly caught three-wide.
🏃♂️Midfield
#6 Sistine Tunnel is the most likely to land in a midfield position. It can be tardy at the start and will likely look for cover a few lengths off the speed from its good draw (2).
🐌Backmarkers
#9 Some Eclipse will be the clear backmarker. It is dropping back from 1500m+ races and will lack the sharpness to go with these specialist sprinters early.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
With the rail in the True position, the track should play fairly. Inside barriers are a distinct advantage for horses with the speed to use them, as it provides the most economical run. Horses drawn wide must either have superior speed to cross and find a position or risk being caught wide on the turn, covering extra ground.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
The race is on the Synthetic surface, which nullifies the impact of weather and provides a consistent, all-weather footing. This surface typically favours horses with proven form on it, as the kickback and rhythm can be different from turf. The race will be run on its merits, with tempo and tactical positioning being the key factors, not any track bias due to wear and tear.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The 1000m start at Pakenham is a short, sharp dash into a single, sweeping turn before the straight. This configuration heavily favours horses with tactical speed who can establish a forward position without spending too much energy. Being on-pace is a distinct advantage. While the straight is long enough for backmarkers to make ground, they need the pace to be strong enough to cause the leaders to tire, which is possible here.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
This is a Benchmark 64 handicap, meaning most runners are well-exposed and racing at their appropriate level. The significant factor is the profile of #9 Some Eclipse, a stayer dropping back to a 1000m sprint. This is a highly unorthodox preparation and makes it very difficult to see it being competitive against specialist sprinters. The rest of the field profiles as genuine short-course gallopers suited to these conditions.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
The map points to a genuinely run 1000m sprint, dictated by #3 Three Point Turn. The key to the race will be which of the on-pace runners gets the most economical trip in behind the speed. The pressure from #1 Dio on the outside and #7 Night Flash from the inside should ensure the leader does not get a soft time in front. This sets the race up for a horse that can sit just off the hot pace and produce the strongest finish in the straight.
✅Most Advantaged
#4 Bring Me Power The map looks ideal. From barrier 4, it can camp directly behind the leader #3 Three Point Turn, getting a perfect tow into the race without spending a penny. Coming off a last-start synthetic win where it sat on-pace, it is in form and suited to the predicted race shape. #7 Night Flash also maps for a beautiful run from barrier 3.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#1 Dio Drawing the widest gate (7) in a 1000m sprint is a major tactical disadvantage. It will either have to burn early energy to cross runners with better draws or face being trapped three-wide without cover, a losing proposition over this trip. #9 Some Eclipse is also severely disadvantaged by the extreme drop in distance.
💰Betting Considerations
- The analysis strongly favours on-pace runners who have drawn well. Focus on horses mapping to be in the first four positions.
- #4 Bring Me Power and #7 Night Flash appear to have the most favourable tactical setups due to their ability to settle just off a genuine speed from inside draws.
- #3 Three Point Turn is the horse they all have to catch, but the likely pressure makes it vulnerable late. It remains a key chance but may be poor value if short in the market.
- There is significant risk associated with #1 Dio due to the barrier. It would need to be a class above to overcome the likely tough run. It represents a potential horse to bet against.
- #9 Some Eclipse can be safely dismissed as a winning chance due to the unsuitable distance.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Dio
Three Point Turn
Bring Me Power
Over Shady
Sistine Tunnel
Night Flash
Some Eclipse
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