Taylor Building Group (Bm60)
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 3 at Toowoomba
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
There are several runners who either lead or race prominently, ensuring a contested and honest tempo. The pressure will likely come from those drawn middle to wide who need to press forward to secure a position.
🏃♂️Likely Positions In-Running
🥇Leaders
#6 Charmed Passage is the most likely to push on from its wide gate to take up the running. #7 Tokyo Bandit has the option to kick up from the inside barrier and attempt to hold the lead, but may opt to take a sit.
🏃On-Pace/Handy
This will be a key group. #5 Uluwatu maps perfectly from barrier 4 to land in the box seat or one-out, one-back. #14 Field Agent (5) will be right there with it. #10 Lightning Strikes (7) will likely be working across to settle in this group, potentially caught three-wide without cover if it can't slot in.
🏃♂️Midfield
#9 Electric Arrow is drawn ideally in barrier 2 to get an economical run, trailing the speed. #1 Last Chance Saloon will likely settle here or just behind, but the big weight may see it a pair further back than usual.
🐌Backmarkers
#8 Change The Deel will drop out from barrier 3 and look to save ground along the rail, consistent with its pattern. #11 Miss Mozambique (10) will also get back. #12 La Vittoria, a stayer resuming over an unsuitable 1200m, will be detached and near last from the wide gate.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
With the rail out +3m (800-600) and +4m for the remainder, the track will play slightly tighter. This can sometimes make it harder for backmarkers to sweep around the field on the turn. It may offer a slight advantage to those drawn inside who can save ground. However, on a Soft 6 track, the inside section of the straight could chop up as the meeting progresses, potentially shifting the preferred ground to the middle-to-wider lanes, which could negate the advantage of the inside draw late in the race.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
The Soft 6 rating is a critical factor. It will ensure the genuine tempo feels even more taxing, particularly up the demanding home straight. Horses with proven form on rain-affected ground will have a distinct advantage. Leaders will find it very difficult to sustain a high-pressure gallop from start to finish. The conditions are ideal for strong finishers or on-pace horses who can relax in the run and have a reserve of energy for the final 300m. Backmarkers who handle the ground will be given their chance to run on if the leaders falter.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The 1200m start at Toowoomba provides a downhill run to the first turn around the 800m mark. This encourages speed and allows horses drawn with pace to cross, but it can also tempt leaders into going too fast. The defining feature is the long, strength-sapping uphill climb in the home straight. On a Soft 6, this incline becomes a significant test of stamina, often catching out leaders who have spent too much petrol early. It will favour horses who have had a softer run and can sustain a long, grinding finish.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
As a Benchmark 60 handicap, the race features a mix of form and ability. The weight scale is important; #1 Last Chance Saloon is severely tested with 62.5kg on a soft track. #12 La Vittoria is a stayer resuming and is not in this race to win, effectively reducing the field size from a competitive standpoint and ensuring it won't contribute to early pace. The overall quality means tactical mistakes are more common and fitness levels can vary.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
The combination of a genuine pace, a Soft 6 track, and the tough uphill Toowoomba straight creates a high-attrition scenario. The leaders, particularly #6 Charmed Passage, are at risk of over-exerting themselves early. This sets the race up perfectly for a horse that can take a sit just off the speed, conserve energy, and has the strength to power through the testing conditions in the straight. Backmarkers with a strong finish and wet track credentials are also brought into play. The race will likely be won by the strongest, not necessarily the fastest, horse in the final 200m.
✅Most Advantaged
#5 Uluwatu This horse's map is ideal. From barrier 4, it can settle in the first three or four pairs, likely one-off-the-rail with cover, without spending any extra energy. It stalks a genuine speed, is a proven performer at this track and distance, and handles soft going. This tactical setup gives it the prime opportunity to peel out at the top of the straight and out-grind the tiring leaders.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#6 Charmed Passage While it has the speed to lead, the combination of a wide draw (8), the need to work hard to cross, a genuine tempo, and a testing Soft 6 surface makes it highly vulnerable late. It is likely to do too much work early and will be a sitting shot for the stalkers in the final furlong. #1 Last Chance Saloon also faces a monumental task with 62.5kg in these conditions.
💰Betting Considerations
This analysis points towards focusing on horses that can take a trail behind a contested lead.
- Primary Bet: #5 Uluwatu is the horse that receives the most advantages from the predicted race shape. It maps for a perfect run and has the profile to handle the conditions.
- Value/Exotics: #8 Change The Deel, despite being a backmarker, won in this pattern last start at this track/distance. The strong pace will suit its closing style, and from barrier 3 it will save ground. It could be the one charging late if the on-pacers tire. #9 Electric Arrow also maps for an economical rails run in midfield and could hit the placings by sticking to the inside.
- Risks: Laying or betting against #6 Charmed Passage is a strong consideration due to the adverse map and conditions. The big weight makes #1 Last Chance Saloon a significant risk as well.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Last Chance Saloon
Uluwatu
Charmed Passage
Tokyo Bandit
Change The Deel
Electric Arrow
Lightning Strikes
Miss Mozambique
La Vittoria
Field Agent
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