Southern Cross Sheds (Bm72)
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 4 at Toowoomba
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
The tempo will be dictated by the two main speed influences, #5 Unleash and #7 Cracker Essgee. The former draws to kick up and lead, while the latter must press forward from a wide gate to avoid being caught deep. This dynamic should ensure at least a moderate pace. If the rider of #7 Cracker Essgee is aggressive in seeking the front, the pace could escalate to genuine, which would test the stamina of all runners on the Soft 6 track.
🏃♂️Likely Positions In-Running
🥇Leaders
#5 Unleash is best drawn to lead. #7 Cracker Essgee will have to work hard from the wide gate to either sit outside the lead or cross over. Expect these two to be the front-runners.
🏃On-Pace/Handy
#9 Vancity, if it begins well from barrier 1, is ideally placed to trail the leader in the box seat. #6 Count The Coin may look to slide across from barrier 7 and find a position one-off-the-rail just behind the speed.
🏃♂️Midfield
#1 Skywolf typically settles in this position and from barrier 5, should find a comfortable spot around mid-pack. #3 The Deputy also profiles as a horse that will settle in the second half of the field, likely just worse than midfield.
🐌Backmarkers
#4 Katdeel is the clear backmarker of the field. Its pattern is to get back and produce a late finishing burst, so expect it to be at or near the tail of the field.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
With the rail out +3m/+4m, the track will play slightly tighter. This can place an emphasis on saving ground and may provide a marginal advantage to on-pace runners drawn to the inside. On a Soft 6 surface, jockeys may look to scout for better going away from the rail in the straight, which could negate the advantage of an inside draw late in the race.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
The Soft 6 rating will be a significant factor. It will make the 1300m a genuine test of stamina and will disadvantage any horse that is forced to do excess work early, such as those caught wide. The conditions will suit horses with proven wet track form. Making ground from the back will be more arduous, placing further emphasis on finding a forward or midfield position in the run. The pace up front will be critical; a strong tempo will tire the leaders, but a moderate tempo will make it nearly impossible for closers.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The 1300m start at Toowoomba provides a reasonable run into the first dogleg turn, allowing horses like #7 Cracker Essgee a chance to find a position. However, the key feature is the relatively short home straight (~380m). This configuration often favours horses that are on-pace and can establish a break at the top of the straight, as it can be difficult for backmarkers to make up a large deficit in the final furlong, particularly if the pace has been moderate.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
As a BM72 Handicap, the race brings together a field of well-exposed, competitive horses. The weight spread is not excessive, meaning tactical advantages derived from the speed map will be crucial. The presence of the un-raced #9 Vancity introduces a high degree of uncertainty into the map, as its early speed and race-day performance are complete unknowns.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
The race is likely to be won or lost based on the early pace duel between #5 Unleash and #7 Cracker Essgee. The Soft 6 track conditions combined with Toowoomba's short straight create a scenario that strongly favours horses positioned on or near the speed. A moderate tempo will give the leaders a decisive advantage, turning the race into a sprint home from the top of the straight where it will be difficult to make up significant ground from the back.
✅Most Advantaged
#5 Unleash draws perfectly in barrier 2 to control the race. It can either lead at a comfortable tempo or take a perfect trail in the box seat. On a testing track, the ability to save ground and conserve energy is a major tactical advantage. This horse gets the most favourable map setup.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#4 Katdeel and #7 Cracker Essgee. As a designated backmarker, #4 Katdeel faces a monumental task on a soft track with a short straight, unless the pace is run at a genuinely frantic tempo. #7 Cracker Essgee is also in a difficult position from the wide barrier, forced to either burn significant energy early on the soft ground to find a forward spot or risk being trapped wide throughout.
💰Betting Considerations
The analysis points towards horses mapping in the front half of the field having a significant advantage. #5 Unleash appears to get the most favourable run and should be considered a prime contender based on the map. The wildcard is #9 Vancity; any positive market moves should be noted, as a forward showing from the inside gate would make it a threat. Runners like #4 Katdeel and #3 The Deputy will rely heavily on a fast pace to bring them into the race and represent a higher risk given the likely race shape. They may offer value if you believe the pace will be stronger than moderate.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Skywolf
The Deputy
Katdeel
Unleash
Count The Coin
Cracker Essgee
Vancity
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