TAB Hcp
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 1 at Rockhampton
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
The map points to a moderate tempo, primarily influenced by a single designated leader. There is a lack of genuine, high-pressure speed drawn across the field, which should allow the front-runner to dictate terms to a large degree. - **#7 Sunshinyday:** The clear and most likely leader. Has excellent gate speed and won its most recent start over 850m by leading. Will aim to cross from barrier 6 and control the race. - **#2 Better Than Words:** Possesses tactical speed and could press forward from the wider gate (7) to sit outside the leader, but is not a noted tearaway. Jockey Ryan Wiggins will likely assess the speed inside and aim for a forward position without engaging in a speed battle. - **#3 Eleanor Nancy:** The major wildcard. With no recent form and drawn barrier 2, its early speed is unknown. If it musters pace, it could hold the rail and keep Sunshinyday honest, lifting the tempo to genuine. If slow away, it allows Sunshinyday an uncontested lead.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
The rail at +7m for the entire circuit is a significant factor. This moves the racing surface away from the inside section, which typically sees the most wear. On a Soft 6 track, this should provide a better, more uniform surface for all runners. However, it also slightly sharpens the turns and shortens the run home. This can make it more difficult for backmarkers to make up ground and may offer a slight advantage to on-pace horses who can kick off the turn. Saving ground is paramount, and horses drawn wide who cannot find cover will be severely disadvantaged.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
A Soft 6 rating ensures this will be a true test of stamina at the end of 1200m. The surface will be tiring and will blunt the acceleration of many horses, placing an emphasis on strength and proven ability in rain-affected going. The pace may be slightly slower than on a Good track, and leaders who expend too much energy early will be vulnerable late. Horses who can travel comfortably in the conditions and sustain a long run will be heavily favoured over those who rely on a sharp, brilliant turn of foot.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The 1200m start at Rockhampton provides a fair run down the back straight before the long, sweeping turn into the straight. This configuration allows horses with early speed to cross from middle gates, but the long turn can leave those trapped wide at a significant disadvantage. The lengthy home straight gives all runners a chance to wind up, but on a testing track, those who have had an economical run will be best placed to finish off strongly.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
As an Open Handicap, this race brings together the top class of local gallopers. The handicap conditions are designed to level the playing field, and the top weight of 60.0kg for #1 Ask Me Mate will be a significant burden on the soft ground. The presence of the unknown #3 Eleanor Nancy adds a layer of unpredictability uncommon in Open company races, where form is usually well-exposed. The race is against seasoned, tough competitors, favouring horses with a history of performing under these weight and class conditions.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
The race is likely to be run at a moderate tempo, with #7 Sunshinyday dictating from the front. The Soft 6 track and +7m rail position will make it a testing contest, favouring strong finishers who secure an economical run in transit. The long turn at Rockhampton will be crucial; horses caught wide will lose considerable ground. The predicted race shape suggests those settling just off the speed will be in a prime position to strike at the top of the straight. The race will likely develop into a sprint home from the 600m mark, testing both acceleration and stamina in the demanding conditions.
✅Most Advantaged
#6 Horrible Hank (3) This horse is mapped to get the perfect run. From barrier 3, Hannah English can have it settled comfortably in midfield, on the back of the leaders. Its recent wins have come from this pattern, demonstrating a strong finish. Given the moderate pace, it should be close enough to strike and has proven form on soft going. The inside draw on a soft track with the rail out 7m is a major tactical advantage.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#5 Amberinger (8) The outside barrier is a significant negative in these conditions. Jockey Jackson Murphy faces a difficult choice: push forward and risk being trapped three-wide with no cover on the long turn, or restrain to the rear and be left with too much ground to make up on a tiring track where the likely moderate pace will not suit backmarkers. This horse will require a lot of luck to get into a winning position. #1 Ask Me Mate (5) also faces a tough task with 60.0kg on a Soft 6 track.
💰Betting Considerations
- Primary Focus: The map heavily favours horses drawn inside who can take a trail. #6 Horrible Hank stands out as the runner set to receive the most favourable run in transit and should be considered a key contender based on the tactical setup.
- Value & Risk: #4 Time To Prophet is another who draws well and could represent value if overlooked. Be extremely cautious of runners drawn wide, specifically #5 Amberinger and to a lesser extent #2 Better Than Words, who will need tactically brilliant rides to overcome their gates.
- Lay Candidates: The top weight #1 Ask Me Mate on a soft track is a major concern. The complete unknown factor of #3 Eleanor Nancy makes it impossible to assess and a risk for exotic bets.
- Overall Strategy: The race dynamic suggests backing a horse that maps to be in the first half of the field with cover. A moderate tempo on a soft track is a difficult combination for swoopers, making on-pace and midfield runners the most likely beneficiaries.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Ask Me Mate
Better Than Words
Eleanor Nancy
Time To Prophet
Amberinger
Horrible Hank
Sunshinyday
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