LJ Hooker (Bm65)
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 6 at Rockhampton
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
The map indicates a number of runners who prefer to race on the speed, which should ensure a legitimate tempo. While not guaranteed to be frantic, there will be enough pressure to prevent a slowly run affair.
🏃♂️Likely Positions In-Running
🥇Leaders
#1 Nondisclosure is the most probable leader from the inside gate. It may receive early company from #10 Bo Bo Beware, who could sit at its girth.
🏃On-Pace/Handy
#5 General Hippo draws ideally in barrier 4 to sit just behind the speed, potentially in the coveted one-out, one-back position. #3 Fire King has the gate speed and barrier (3) to hold a position in the first four, possibly taking the box seat. #4 Prepotent will have to work forward from barrier 8 but is expected to settle in a forward position, likely outside the leaders or one-off with cover.
🏃♂️Midfield
#8 The Last Saga draws to land in a perfect midfield position with cover, tracking the genuine tempo. From the wide gate, #2 Zhuang Shi will likely be restrained to find cover in the second half of the field to avoid being trapped wide.
🐌Backmarkers
#6 Freeman is a habitual backmarker and will settle near the rear of the field from its wide draw, relying on a strong finishing burst.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
With the rail out +7m for the entire circuit, the track will play tighter. This can sometimes favour on-pace runners as the field is more compressed and making wide, sweeping runs from the back becomes a longer journey. However, a key factor will be where the superior ground is in the straight. If the inside section is chopped up, this rail position may funnel runners towards the better going in the middle of the track, potentially negating the advantage of an inside run.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
The Soft 6 rating is critical. It guarantees that stamina and wet-track capability will be paramount. The genuine pace will stretch the field, and horses that are not proven on soft ground or are carrying big weights will be found out late. The conditions are likely to favour strong finishers who can sustain a long run, provided they are not left with an impossible task. There is a high chance of a track bias developing, with jockeys searching for firmer ground out wider in the home straight as the meeting progresses.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The 1400m start at Rockhampton provides a fair run to the first turn, allowing runners to sort themselves out. However, the long, testing home straight is the key feature. On a Soft 6 surface, and with a genuine pace predicted, this straight will feel even longer. It will expose any stamina limitations and strongly favour horses that have enjoyed an economical run and handle the testing ground.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
This is a Benchmark 65 Handicap, meaning weight will play a significant role. #1 Nondisclosure is burdened with a formidable 62.5kg. Attempting to lead all the way under that weight, on a soft track with pace pressure, is a monumental task. Conversely, #10 Bo Bo Beware (51.0kg) and #5 General Hippo (53.5kg) receive substantial weight relief, which will be a major asset in the testing final stages. This weight spread is a key dynamic of the race.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
The race sets up for a genuine test of stamina. The pace injected by #1 Nondisclosure, #10 Bo Bo Beware, and #4 Prepotent will ensure there is no loafing. Combined with the Soft 6 surface and the 1400m distance, this will make it difficult for the front-runners to hold on, especially the top-weight. The race shape strongly favours runners who can take a trail just off the speed and have a strong finish. Horses proven on rain-affected ground will have a distinct edge. The winner will likely be a horse that conserves energy in the first half and can power through the testing conditions in the straight.
✅Most Advantaged
#3 Fire King (3) From barrier 3 with a moderate weight, it maps to get the perfect tactical run, settling in the first four with cover without spending any extra energy. This "box seat" or "one-one" position behind a genuine speed is the ideal scenario under these conditions, giving it the first opportunity to strike as the leaders tire.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#1 Nondisclosure (2) Despite the good draw, the combination of top weight (62.5kg), guaranteed pace pressure, and a testing Soft 6 track creates a near-impossible task. It is highly vulnerable to being run down in the final 200m. Also facing a challenge is #6 Freeman (9), who will need to make up significant ground from the back on a track where the rail position can make that difficult.
💰Betting Considerations
This analysis suggests focusing on runners that map to get an economical run and have proven ability on soft ground. The pace setup makes leaders, particularly the top weight, a significant betting risk.
- High-Risk Profile: #1 Nondisclosure is a prime candidate to bet against due to the weight and pace pressure.
- Value Opportunities: Look for horses like #3 Fire King, which maps for a perfect run, and #10 Bo Bo Beware, whose light weight is a massive advantage if it can handle the pressure. #8 The Last Saga is another who could get a good trail and run on.
- Strategy: Prioritise horses drawn for a soft run just off the speed. Backmarkers are risky but could be included in exotic bets if the pace completely collapses and the track is playing fairly. Proven wet-track form is a non-negotiable filter.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Nondisclosure
Zhuang Shi
Fire King
Prepotent
General Hippo
Freeman
The Last Saga
Bo Bo Beware
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