Ultima Hotel Mdn Plate

With the rail out 2m from the 950m to the 500m, the field might be slightly compacted around the turn. In the straight, the rail is True. On a Heavy 9 track, the ground closest to the rail is often the most worn and inferior section by this stage of the meeting. This can negate the advantage of an inside draw, as jockeys will likely be searching for firmer footing wider out in the home straight. Horses that can peel out and find a better lane will be advantaged.

The Heavy 9 is the single most critical factor. The race will be a genuine slog.

• Pace: The heavy going will ensure a slower-than-average tempo as jockeys nurse their mounts.
• Bias: The inside could be a disadvantage in the straight. Expect winners to come from the middle of the track.
• Performance: A premium is placed on proven wet track ability and sheer stamina. Horses who have not performed on heavy ground are a significant risk. The ability to grind out a finish is far more important than a sharp turn of foot.

The 1300m start at Swan Hill provides a reasonable run into the first corner, allowing some time for sorting out positions. However, it's not long enough to overcome a very wide barrier without significant effort. The long, sweeping home straight typically gives all runners their chance, but on a Heavy 9 track and with a predicted slow tempo, this advantage shifts. It will become a true test of stamina, and horses that have enjoyed an energy-saving run will be favoured over those who have had to work hard early.

As a Maiden Plate, form is inconsistent, and many runners are still learning. This adds a layer of unreliability to the speed map. Set weights favour horses with the most consistent recent form without imposing a weight penalty. The large number of runners with limited or no exposure to truly heavy tracks makes it a difficult race to assess with confidence.