Footts Swan Hill Demolition Group Mdn Plate
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 4 at Swan Hill
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
The pace map points towards a genuinely run mile. There are several key factors contributing to this assessment. Il Cielo is a natural on-pace runner who must press forward from the extreme outside barrier (16) to avoid being trapped wide, which will inject significant and sustained pressure. Karasmatic has a consistent on-pace pattern and from gate 6 will be aiming to lead or sit right on the speed. This creates a scenario where at least two horses are committed to going forward. - **#3 Karasmatic:** Shows consistent on-pace patterns. From barrier 6, Harry Coffey will likely look to either lead or sit outside the leader. He is a primary speed influence. - **#2 Il Cielo:** Recent form shows him settling 2nd or 3rd. From barrier 16, has no option but to push forward at the start, ensuring there is no slow tempo. He will either challenge for the lead or be forced to work hard outside it. - **#16 Not Fake:** From the coveted barrier 1, will likely kick up to hold a forward position, potentially taking the sit directly behind the leaders (box seat) and contributing to the early pressure.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
With the rail out 2m from the 950m to the 500m mark, the intention is to move racing off the most worn section of the track around the home turn. On a Heavy 9, this could be significant. The inside section of the track is likely to be heavily chopped up by this stage of the day. This may result in a distinct bias where jockeys will look to get their mounts away from the rail and into the slightly better ground (lanes 3-5) upon straightening. This will disadvantage horses locked away on the fence if they cannot get clear running room.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
The Heavy 9 rating is the single most critical factor. This will be an extreme test of stamina and wet-track capability.
- The genuine tempo will feel even more taxing, ensuring that only true stayers at the trip who handle the conditions will be finishing strongly.
- A distinct track bias is highly probable, with the inside ground likely inferior. Jockeys will be searching for the best going in the straight, often towards the crown of the track.
- Horses without proven form on heavy ground are at a significant disadvantage. The ability to slog through the mud will be more important than a sharp turn of foot.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The 1600m start at Swan Hill provides a fair run of approximately 400m to the first turn, which does give horses drawn wide some opportunity to cross and find a position. However, on a Heavy 9 surface, any extra ground covered early will be costly. The long home straight at Swan Hill typically allows all runners their chance, but on such a testing track, it will become a grueling test of stamina. Horses that have made an early move or covered extra ground will struggle to finish the race off.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
As a Maiden Plate, the race is filled with horses yet to win a race, which can lead to unpredictable racing. However, many in this field are well-exposed with numerous starts, making their racing patterns more reliable than in a typical maiden. The Set Weight conditions mean that proven performance, particularly on heavy ground, should be the key determinant, rather than weight advantages.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
This race profiles as a true war of attrition. The combination of a genuine tempo and a deeply rain-affected Heavy 9 track will place an absolute premium on stamina and wet-track prowess. The pace set by #3 Karasmatic and forced by #2 Il Cielo will ensure the race is run honestly, setting it up for horses who can relax in the run and sustain a long, grinding finish. The expected track pattern suggests that being able to get to the middle-to-outside part of the track in the straight will be advantageous. The race will likely develop into a staying contest from the 600m mark, with those who did the early work fading.
✅Most Advantaged
#4 Pick Wisely From barrier 3, Declan Bates can land in a perfect midfield position, saving crucial energy on the fence. His last start 4th on a Heavy 8 at Bendigo demonstrates his ability to handle these conditions. The genuine pace will suit his running style, allowing him to travel economically before peeling off heels in the straight to find the better ground. His map position minimises risk and maximises his chances of finishing strongly when others are tiring.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#2 Il Cielo The combination of drawing barrier 16 and his on-pace racing style is a brutal setup on a Heavy 9. He will be forced to burn a significant amount of energy to cross the field, likely ending up posted wide without cover. This early exertion on such a testing surface will leave him extremely vulnerable over the final 400m. He faces an immense tactical challenge to even feature in the finish.
💰Betting Considerations
The primary focus for betting should be on horses with demonstrated form on Heavy tracks. The speed map strongly suggests that horses drawn wide who need to go forward (like #2 Il Cielo) are significant risks and should be opposed. Conversely, horses drawn to get an economical run in transit (like #4 Pick Wisely, #16 Not Fake, #17 First Venture) are tactically advantaged. A closer with proven heavy track form could represent value, as the strong pace will give them a chance to run on, provided they can navigate a path through tiring horses and find the best part of the track. Wagers should be built around proven wet-trackers who are mapped to receive an energy-saving run.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Grunt For Glory
Il Cielo
Karasmatic
Pick Wisely
Rumble Bay
Sue's Legacy
Youbeeforty
Ess Ay Jewel
Evamos
Miss Solar Hart
Unwind
Cheeky Crab
Not Fake
First Venture
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