Pooles Accountants (Bm58)
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 5 at Swan Hill
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
The presence of multiple runners who either lead or race prominently, several of whom have drawn very wide, points towards significant pressure for positions early. The need for these wide-drawn runners to push forward to avoid being trapped deep will ensure a solid tempo from the outset. On a Heavy 9 track, this pace will feel even more demanding.
🏃♂️Likely Positions In-Running
🥇Leaders
#10 Teddy Boy is the most likely to drive across from the extreme outside barrier to take up the running. Expect #16 Dashing Rebel to be in close attendance, potentially challenging for the lead or sitting outside it, given its wide draw and forward pattern.
🏃On-Pace/Handy
#9 Vino Grande will push forward from its wide gate to try and secure a spot one-off-the-rail. #1 King Of Clubs draws perfectly in barrier 1 to sit in the box seat, provided it has enough early speed to hold its position. #2 Mayan and #15 Fil have the patterns to settle in the first four or five, though Mayan will need to work across from barrier 11.
🏃♂️Midfield
This group will look for cover behind the strong tempo. #8 Track Patcher and #14 Tarshin map to get ideal runs midfield, with Tarshin's low draw (3) being a significant advantage to save ground. #3 Lika Swift is drawn very wide (16) and will likely be forced to settle mid-pack but may be caught wide. #19 Squagaga should settle in a similar position from its better draw.
🐌Backmarkers
#5 Shal Exceed is a noted backmarker who will be ridden patiently from the good draw, looking to save ground for a late run. #11 Off The Deep End and #18 Sleep Deprived will also settle in the rear third of the field, with Sleep Deprived often slow to begin.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
With the rail out 2m from the 950m to the 500m mark and True for the remainder, it has a minimal overall impact. The section with the rail out is along the back straight. On a Heavy 9, the key section is the home straight. With the rail in the True position here, the inside lanes may be significantly chopped up by this stage of the day. Jockeys will likely be looking to find superior ground wider out in the straight, potentially nullifying the advantage of inside barriers.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
The Heavy 9 is the single most critical factor. This will be an extreme test of stamina over the 1600m. The predicted strong pace will set the race up for horses who are genuinely strong at the end of a testing mile and who have proven form on very wet ground. Leaders who expend too much energy early will be highly vulnerable in the final 200m. The ability to handle the conditions will be more important than pure class. Horses with a fitness edge and proven heavy track credentials will be strongly favoured.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The 1600m start at Swan Hill provides a fair run of approximately 400m to the first turn. This gives horses drawn wide a chance to cross, but it often requires a significant expenditure of energy. Those who fail to get across can be left posted three or four wide, which is a major negative. The long, sweeping home straight of over 400m gives backmarkers an opportunity to make up ground, which will be particularly relevant here given the predicted strong pace and testing track conditions.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
This is a Benchmark 58 handicap, a lower-grade provincial race. The form can be inconsistent, and tactical maps are sometimes less reliable. The weight spread is important on the heavy track; topweights #1 King Of Clubs and #2 Mayan (62.5kg) will find it very tough to carry their imposts effectively, while lighter-weighted runners like #14 Tarshin (57.0kg) and #18 Sleep Deprived (56.5kg) receive a significant advantage.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
The race is set up for a war of attrition. A strong pace is almost guaranteed due to the wide draws of natural leaders #10 Teddy Boy and #16 Dashing Rebel. This early pressure, combined with the Heavy 9 track, will ensure that only the fittest horses with proven wet-track stamina will be fighting out the finish. The leaders are expected to tire, creating an opportunity for runners from midfield or further back who have had a more economical run and can sustain a long run in the gruelling conditions. The race will likely develop into a staying contest down the long Swan Hill straight, with jockeys searching for the best ground wider out.
✅Most Advantaged
#14 Tarshin (14) This horse maps for a perfect race. The low barrier (3) allows Ryan Hurdle to save crucial energy midfield on the fence, away from the early speed battle. The horse has strong recent form, including a last-start second on a Soft 7 over this distance, indicating it handles wet ground. With only 57.0kg, it is well-weighted to power over the top of the tiring leaders.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#10 Teddy Boy (10) Faces an enormous task. Must be ridden aggressively from barrier 18 to have any chance, which will burn vital energy. Leading on a Heavy 9 after doing that much work is a recipe for stopping badly in the straight. #16 Dashing Rebel (16) is in a very similar, difficult position. Topweight #1 King Of Clubs (1) is also disadvantaged by the 62.5kg on a testing track, despite the good draw.
💰Betting Considerations
This race profiles as one where you can confidently oppose the leaders who have drawn wide. The combination of early work and a Heavy 9 track is a low-percentage play. The focus should be on proven wet-trackers who are rock-hard fit and map to get an energy-saving run. #14 Tarshin fits this profile perfectly and looks to be set up for a peak performance. Another key chance is #18 Sleep Deprived, whose last-start second on a Heavy 10 at Moe was outstanding. Despite drawing wide, the backmarker pattern means it will not be involved in the early speed and will be charging late if Dean Yendall can find a path. #5 Shal Exceed is in winning form but is a risk as a backmarker who will need things to unfold perfectly. The value lies in identifying the strongest finisher who gets the right run in transit.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
King Of Clubs
Mayan
Lika Swift
Shal Exceed
Track Patcher
Vino Grande
Teddy Boy
Off The Deep End
Tarshin
Fil
Dashing Rebel
Sleep Deprived
Squagaga
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