BusBiz.net.au (Bm64)
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 6 at Swan Hill
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
This race projects to have a very controllable tempo. There is only one designated, habitual leader in the field. The 2400m distance on a Heavy 9 track will naturally discourage jockeys from seeking an aggressive, early speed battle.
🏃♂️Likely Positions In-Running
🥇Leaders
#3 Dubai Moon is expected to find the lead with complete ease and will attempt to dictate the race from the front.
🏃On-Pace/Handy
#11 Wild Vitality is mapped to get the perfect run in the box seat from barrier 1. #7 Djockovic is likely to work across from its wide barrier to sit outside the leader or in the one-out, one-back position to avoid being caught wide.
🏃♂️Midfield
#5 Bannerton and #9 Rasputina should find comfortable spots in the running line, mid-pack, from their respective draws. #2 Take A Pick will settle with them or just behind them, typically in the back half of the field.
🐌Backmarkers
#8 Prince Beejay is a natural get-back runner and will almost certainly be at the tail of the field. #10 Dashing Donkey may also be snagged back from the wide gate if it can't find a forward position without doing too much work.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
With the rail out 2m from the 950m to the 500m, the running line through the back straight is slightly away from the inside. However, the dominant factor is the Heavy 9 rating. By this stage of the day, the inside section of the track is likely to be significantly chopped up and inferior ground. Jockeys will be looking to navigate towards the middle-to-wider part of the track in the home straight to find the firmest going, making the rail position largely irrelevant in the final stages. Saving ground early will still be a benefit, but getting to the right lane late will be crucial.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
A Heavy 9 track is the defining feature of this race. The overall pace will be significantly slower, and the race will become a supreme test of endurance. Horses who are proven, genuine wet trackers will have a massive advantage. The sticky ground will make it very difficult for backmarkers to make up significant ground, particularly if the leader gets a soft sectional. This surface places a premium on horses who travel on the bridle and can sustain a long, grinding run, as opposed to those with a sharp, brilliant turn of foot.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The 2400m start at Swan Hill is positioned in the home straight, providing a long and fair run of over 600m to the first turn. This long run significantly reduces the disadvantage of wide barriers in a small field, allowing horses time to find their natural position. The track itself has long, sweeping turns and a generous home straight, making it a genuine test of stamina. At 2400m on a Heavy 9, this race will be a true war of attrition where stamina and the ability to handle the boggy conditions will be the deciding factors.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
As a Benchmark 64 staying handicap, the race can be prone to tactical, muddling affairs. There is less pressure on jockeys to ensure a true tempo compared to a higher-grade race. The weights are relatively compressed, meaning the focus shifts heavily from weight-carrying ability to raw stamina and wet track prowess. Expect jockeys to hold their horses together for as long as possible before launching a sustained bid from the 800m or 600m mark.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
All factors point towards a slowly run race where the leader, #3 Dubai Moon, dictates proceedings entirely. The Heavy 9 track will ensure it is a gruelling slog to the finish, placing a huge emphasis on stamina and wet-track handling. The race will likely develop into a staying test from the 800m, favouring horses positioned on-pace who can handle the ground and have conserved energy. Backmarkers face a monumental task to make an impact unless the leader falters significantly.
✅Most Advantaged
#3 Dubai Moon This horse gets the perfect map. It is the sole leader, a proven wet tracker, and will dictate the pace to suit itself. If rated well, it can establish a winning break on the turn and will be incredibly difficult to run down in the heavy conditions.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#8 Prince Beejay As a natural backmarker, this horse's fate is sealed by the likely slow tempo. In a race projected to be dominated from the front on a taxing Heavy 9 surface, making up the necessary ground from the rear of the field will be a near-impossible task. #10 Dashing Donkey is also in an awkward position from barrier 11, facing a difficult choice between doing early work or settling last.
💰Betting Considerations
The analysis strongly suggests favouring on-pace runners with proven Heavy track credentials.
- Primary Focus: #3 Dubai Moon is the key tactical horse and the most likely winner based on the map. It controls the race, and its ability to handle wet ground over a distance is established.
- Value/Exotics: #11 Wild Vitality is mapped for a perfect, energy-saving run in the box seat. If it sees out the 2400m in the conditions, it is a significant chance to figure in the finish at potential value. #5 Bannerton and #7 Djockovic are honest grinders who handle wet ground and are strong considerations for trifecta and first-four combinations as they will be running on when others have tired.
- Risks: Backing any horse that settles in the rear half of the field, especially #8 Prince Beejay, is a high-risk strategy given the predicted race shape. They are entirely dependent on a pace collapse that looks highly unlikely to eventuate.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Take A Pick
Dubai Moon
Bannerton
Djockovic
Prince Beejay
Rasputina
Dashing Donkey
Wild Vitality
Ready for an Edge?
Join our free newsletter for expert analysis and data-backed selections delivered every Wednesday and Saturday.