Wellington Soldiers Memorial Club (Bm66)
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 6 at Wellington
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
The map points to a genuine tempo, primarily influenced by two natural on-pace runners. #1 Tavanasia is a consistent leader who will use the inside draw (3) to press forward and attempt to dictate. The main source of pressure comes from #9 Stockholm, another horse who races on the speed but is drawn extremely wide in barrier 14. This forces a tactical decision: burn early energy to cross and challenge for the lead, or attempt to slot in, which is difficult from that gate. The presence of #8 Casanova, who also races handy, will ensure the leaders cannot get away with cheap sectionals. This combination of a natural leader, a pressured leader from out wide, and a handy runner should ensure a true and testing pace from the outset, especially on the heavy ground.
🏃♂️Likely Positions In-Running
🥇Leaders
#1 Tavanasia is the most likely to kick up from the inside gate and hold the fence in front. #9 Stockholm has little choice but to press forward from barrier 14 and will likely settle outside the lead, or be caught three-wide applying pressure if it cannot cross.
🏃On-Pace/Handy
#8 Casanova maps to get an ideal run, settling just behind the leaders, potentially one-out and one-back. From the inside barrier, #12 Always Fiorente has the tactical speed to hold a position in the first four, possibly securing the box seat behind #1 Tavanasia.
🏃♂️Midfield
#13 Never Bird is expected to settle in a mid-pack position from its middle draw. #10 Way To Divine will likely be forced to drift back from barrier 11 to find cover, settling in the second half of the field alongside #3 All Words.
🐌Backmarkers
#2 Invincible Dash is a habitual slow starter and will almost certainly be at the rear of the field. #14 Green Run, from the outside gate, will also be snagged back to the tail to get cover.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
With the rail in the True position, the track should play fairly without an inherent bias towards a specific running line, initially. However, as this race is late in the program, the inside section of the track on a Heavy 9 is likely to be significantly chopped up and worn. This could make the ground near the rail inferior, potentially disadvantaging leaders who stick to the fence and offering an advantage to horses who can find slightly better going wider out in the straight. Inside barrier draws may become less of an advantage as the race unfolds.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
The Heavy 9 rating is the single most critical factor. This will turn the 1600m into a true slog, placing an absolute premium on stamina and proven wet-track credentials. The pace, while predicted to be genuine, will feel even more taxing, and horses that over-race or are forced to do early work will be extremely vulnerable in the final 200m. The surface will blunt the acceleration of many runners, favouring strong, grinding types over those with a brilliant turn of foot. Expect jockeys to scout for firmer ground in the straight, likely away from the inside rail.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The Wellington 1600m start provides a long run down the back straight before the sweeping home turn. This configuration gives horses drawn wide, like #9 Stockholm, an opportunity to roll forward and find a position without being immediately disadvantaged by a sharp turn. However, sustaining that early effort over the full mile on a Heavy 9 will be a significant test of stamina. The long home straight at Wellington typically gives all runners their chance, and on a testing track, it will allow strong finishers to make up ground on leaders who have gone too hard early.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
As a Benchmark 66 Handicap, the weights are a key consideration, especially on a Heavy 9 track. Top-weights #1 Tavanasia (61.0kg) and #3 All Words (61.5kg) face a significant task to carry their imposts through the testing conditions. Conversely, horses with lighter weights, such as #8 Casanova (55.5kg) and #12 Always Fiorente (53.5kg), receive a considerable advantage, as every kilogram is magnified on such a punishing surface.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
The race is set to be a true war of attrition. A genuine pace, driven by #1 Tavanasia and the wide-running #9 Stockholm, will ensure there is no hiding place. On a Heavy 9 surface, this tempo will expose any runner lacking fitness, stamina, or a genuine liking for the ground. The most likely scenario is that the early speed battle takes its toll, leaving the leaders vulnerable in the long Wellington straight. This will set the race up for a horse that can get an economical run just off the speed or a strong, proven wet-track closer who can navigate a path down the middle of the track.
✅Most Advantaged
#8 Casanova maps to get a perfect tactical run. From gate 7, it can settle just behind the speed duel without having to burn excess energy. It has proven form on heavy ground (a win on a Heavy 8) and carries a manageable weight of 55.5kg. This combination of a favourable map, proven wet-track ability, and a weight advantage gives it the ideal setup to handle the conditions and finish strongly.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#9 Stockholm faces a monumental task from barrier 14. To reach its preferred on-pace position, it must do significant work early. Expending that energy on a Heavy 9 track is a recipe for tiring badly in the straight. Also disadvantaged is #1 Tavanasia, who, despite a good draw, must carry the top weight of 61kg while fending off pressure, a difficult assignment on this surface.
💰Betting Considerations
The primary focus for betting should be on horses with demonstrated form on Heavy tracks. The Heavy 9 will find out any horse that doesn't handle it. The predicted pace setup suggests being cautious of the main speed influences, #1 Tavanasia and #9 Stockholm, due to the weight and barrier issues, respectively. The ideal profile is a horse that maps to get a soft run in transit, is a proven wet-tracker, and has a reasonable weight. #8 Casanova fits this profile perfectly and is a logical contender based on the map. Value could be found in a proven wet-track horse from midfield, like #10 Way To Divine, if it can get a suitable trail into the race and handle the conditions better than others. Risk is associated with any runner unproven on genuinely heavy ground, regardless of their class on dry surfaces.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Tavanasia
Invincible Dash
All Words
Casanova
Stockholm
Way To Divine
Always Fiorente
Never Bird
Green Run
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