Lyrical Acres Training and Agistment Centre Lewiston Plate (C1)
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 4 at Balaklava
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
While there are several runners with on-pace patterns, the 2200m distance on a Heavy 9 track will likely discourage an all-out speed battle. Jockeys will be focused on conserving energy for the long, grinding finish. We expect a controlled tempo set by the natural forward-runners, but it is unlikely to be high-pressure through the middle stages.
🏃♂️Likely Positions In-Running
🥇Leaders
The lead is likely to be contested by #9 Les Vosges and #1 Ambitious Creek. #5 Retourne will work across from the wide barrier to sit on their flank.
🏃On-Pace/Handy
This is the key group. #10 Moana's Fortune maps perfectly to trail the leaders. #4 Menace To Sobriety is ideally drawn to take the box seat or a one-out, one-back position. #12 Little Bit Yours can use its gate to settle handy, while #8 Coorong Tycoon will aim to slot into this group from its wide draw.
🏃♂️Midfield
#13 Henry's Faith can use the inside draw to save ground in a midfield position. #2 Bonsa Big Boy should get an economical run from barrier 3, and #7 Wild Inference projects to settle in this part of the field.
🐌Backmarkers
#3 Lord Pierro, #11 Kohala, and #6 Unisphere are all habitual backmarkers. They will settle at the rear of the field and rely on the race unfolding to their advantage late.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
With the rail out +3m from the 950m mark to the winning post, the ground in the home straight is a significant consideration. On a Heavy 9 track, the inside lanes (1-3) are likely to be heavily chopped up and inferior ground by this stage of the day. This creates a potential advantage for horses that can peel out to the centre of the track to find better going. Leaders who stick to the inside may be vulnerable late, while swoopers will be aiming for the fresher ground wider out.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
The Heavy 9 rating is the single most defining feature of this race. It transforms the 2200m into a true test of endurance, likely equivalent to 2400m+ on a dry surface.
- The pace will be tempered, as jockeys will be careful not to burn their mounts out early.
- Horses with proven form on heavy ground hold a significant advantage. Those who cannot handle severely rain-affected going will be exposed.
- Making up ground from the back will be exceptionally difficult. The race will favour strong, on-pace horses that can handle the conditions and grind away relentlessly in the straight.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The 2200m start at Balaklava provides a long run down the back straight, which gives horses time to find their position. This is particularly relevant for those drawn wide who wish to press forward, like #5 Retourne and #8 Coorong Tycoon. The course is a genuine staying test, and on a Heavy 9 surface, stamina will be the most critical attribute. The long home straight typically allows every horse their chance, but on this testing ground, it will feel like an endless slog, favouring genuine grinders over those with a short burst of speed.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
As a Class 1 Set Weights race, it is populated by horses still early in their development as stayers. This can lead to less predictable racing patterns. The set weights structure benefits the more progressive horses in the field, as they are not severely penalised for recent strong performances, potentially giving an edge to last-start winners or placegetters like #8 Coorong Tycoon and #10 Moana's Fortune.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
This race will be a war of attrition. A moderate tempo is expected, with the Heavy 9 track ensuring it becomes a searching test of stamina. The race shape favours on-pace runners who are proven in the wet. The key tactical decision for jockeys will be when to move into the better ground away from the inside rail in the home straight. Backmarkers face a formidable task to make an impact unless the leaders go far too hard and stop completely, which seems unlikely given the conditions.
✅Most Advantaged
#10 Moana's Fortune appears to have the ideal tactical setup. She is a proven on-pace runner who maps to get a perfect trail behind the leaders. Crucially, her recent form includes a dominant win on a Heavy 9 and strong placings on Heavy 8 tracks, confirming her ability to handle the conditions. From her position, she can stalk the speed and be produced at the right time in the straight.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#6 Unisphere faces an enormous challenge. As a designated backmarker, he will be spotting the field a significant start. Compounding this, he has drawn the extreme outside barrier (13). On a Heavy 9 track where making ground from the rear is arduous, he will need the pace to be suicidal and a lot of luck to feature in the finish. #3 Lord Pierro is another who is disadvantaged by his get-back racing style in these conditions.
💰Betting Considerations
The analysis points towards on-pace runners with proven heavy track credentials.
- Primary Focus: Horses that map in the first half of the field and have demonstrated form on Heavy 8 or worse ground should be strongly considered. #10 Moana's Fortune fits this profile perfectly.
- Value Opportunities: #4 Menace To Sobriety is drawn for a perfect run and has placed on Soft 6 and run well on Heavy 8. He could offer value if he gets the right trail.
- Risks: Backmarkers are a major risk and should be treated with extreme caution, regardless of their ability. The conditions are heavily stacked against them. Be wary of horses without demonstrated form on genuinely heavy surfaces.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Ambitious Creek
Bonsa Big Boy
Lord Pierro
Menace To Sobriety
Retourne
Unisphere
Wild Inference
Coorong Tycoon
Les Vosges
Moana's Fortune
Kohala
Little Bit Yours
Henry's Faith
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