Agfert Fertilizers (Bm58)
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 7 at Balaklava
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
The pace in this 2200m event will be dictated by the horses drawn wide. Both #3 Sir Lord and #6 Cuban Lord have natural early speed and a history of settling on-pace or leading. From barriers 12 and 13 respectively, their jockeys will have little choice but to push forward to avoid being trapped wide. This will ensure a legitimate tempo. #5 The True Believer, from barrier 2, also has a history of racing forward and could elect to kick up and hold the rail, potentially increasing the pressure on the wide runners to work even harder to cross. This setup prevents a slow tempo and should create a true staying test on the heavy ground.
🏃♂️Likely Positions In-Running
🥇Leaders
Expecting a contest for the lead between #3 Sir Lord and #6 Cuban Lord pushing across from their wide gates. #5 The True Believer is the horse drawn to take it up if they begin well and decide to hold the inside.
🏃On-Pace/Handy
#2 Enciphering is drawn perfectly in barrier 1 to take the coveted box-seat trail behind the leaders. Whichever of the leading trio doesn't take up the running will settle in this handy position, likely one-off-the-rail.
🏃♂️Midfield
A large group will settle here. #10 Shadow Hawk (3) should get an ideal run, saving ground just behind the main pack. #4 Mandino (10), #12 Whitchety Grub (9) and #14 Sirmaze (8) will look to slot in with cover, though they risk being caught three-wide if they can't find a spot.
🐌Backmarkers
#1 Flying Assassin, #11 Quebecois, and #13 Got An Inspiration are all confirmed backmarkers who will settle at the rear of the field and look to make their runs late.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
The rail is out (+3m from 950m to the post, +2m from the post to 1550m). The key section is the +3m in the home straight. On a Heavy 9 surface, the ground closer to the rail is likely to be significantly chopped up and inferior by this stage of the day. This rail position will encourage jockeys to search for firmer footing wider out in the straight, potentially favouring horses who are making their runs down the centre of the track. It can be a disadvantage for horses locked away on the fence hoping for an inside run.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
The Heavy 9 rating is the single most important factor in this race. It transforms the 2200m into a searching test of stamina, making it feel closer to 2400m-2500m. The ability to handle genuinely bottomless ground is paramount. Horses with proven winning or placing form on Heavy (H8+) tracks hold a significant class edge. The conditions will likely blunt the speed of the leaders in the final stages, making them vulnerable to strong, proven wet-track stayers who can sustain a long, grinding finish from the back.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The 2200m start at Balaklava offers a long run down the back straight before the first significant turn. This configuration is crucial as it gives the wide-drawn speed horses, like Sir Lord and Cuban Lord, a fair opportunity to work across the field and secure a forward position without being immediately disadvantaged on a corner. The track features a long, sweeping home turn and an expansive home straight, which ensures it is a genuine staying test where horses will have ample time to build momentum and make their runs.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
As a Benchmark 58 handicap, the field consists of journeyman stayers. The pace can sometimes be unreliable in these grades, but the presence of committed on-pacers drawn wide adds confidence to the speed map. The weight scale is a factor on the heavy track; horses down in the weights like #13 Got An Inspiration (52.0kg) and #14 Sirmaze (51.0kg) will find the testing conditions less taxing than the topweights.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
This race will be a war of attrition. The map indicates a solid tempo set by the wide-drawn leaders, which will ensure no horse gets an easy time. The combination of a genuine pace and a Heavy 9 track will stretch the stamina of every runner to its absolute limit. The inside ground is expected to be inferior, placing an emphasis on finding a clear running line in the middle of the track in the straight. The race is set up for a proven wet-tracker who can get an economical run in transit and sustain a powerful finish through the bog.
✅Most Advantaged
#2 Enciphering (1) This horse is mapped to get the perfect run of the race. From the inside barrier, jockey Alysha Warren can have Enciphering settled in the box seat, conserving vital energy while the leaders work hard up front. The horse has proven heavy track form, having run a strong second on a Heavy 8 over a similar trip last start. This ideal tactical position, combined with proven ability in the conditions, makes Enciphering the horse best suited by the race shape.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#6 Cuban Lord (13) and #3 Sir Lord (12). While they possess the speed to be competitive, their wide barriers are a major negative on a Heavy 9 track. They must burn significant energy early to cross and find a position near the lead. This early exertion is highly likely to take its toll in the final 200 metres, leaving them vulnerable to a horse that has enjoyed a softer run.
💰Betting Considerations
- Prioritise Proven Wet Trackers: Given the Heavy 9, form on soft tracks is not enough. Focus exclusively on runners who have performed well on Heavy 8, 9, or 10 surfaces. Horses like #1 Flying Assassin, #2 Enciphering, #3 Sir Lord, and #13 Got An Inspiration fit this profile.
- Inside Draws are Gold: The ability to save ground is critical in these conditions. Horses drawn low to middle gates who can take a sit behind the speed, such as #2 Enciphering and #10 Shadow Hawk, are at a distinct advantage over those forced to race wide.
- Backmarker Value: The predicted pace and testing conditions could play into the hands of a strong closer. A horse like #1 Flying Assassin, who has won three of his last five including on a Heavy 10, could represent value. If he can overcome his last-start flop, he is a genuine threat. Similarly, #13 Got An Inspiration, who ran well for 3rd on a Heavy 10 two starts back and carries a light weight, could be the one finishing strongest.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Flying Assassin
Enciphering
Sir Lord
Mandino
The True Believer
Cuban Lord
Jugan
Shadow Hawk
Quebecois
Whitchety Grub
Got An Inspiration
Sirmaze
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