Teddy Bears Picnic 2 August Mdn Plate
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 2 at Doomben
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
The map is defined by multiple runners who have shown a preference for leading or being right on the speed in their trials. The pressure will come from both inside and out, ensuring there is no opportunity for a cheap lead.
🏃♂️Likely Positions In-Running
🥇Leaders
#1 Anders' Style is drawn to lead along the rail. #5 Quickzou will burn energy from the wide gate to press forward and will likely settle outside the leader, ensuring a strong tempo.
🏃On-Pace/Handy
#17 Zarla is drawn perfectly in barrier 2 to take the coveted "box seat" trail directly behind the leaders. #2 Exodas will be working hard from barrier 12 to find a position one-off-the-rail but is at high risk of being caught three-wide without cover.
🏃♂️Midfield
#6 Rusty Tycoon (3) and #18 Ceretti (4) are well-drawn to secure economical runs midfield on the fence. #4 Melaten (6) and #12 Reconciliate (9) will look for spots in mid-pack, likely one or two horses off the rail. #14 Hunter's Mate (11) is in danger of being posted wide in this group.
🐌Backmarkers
#8 Lady Tangalooma (8), #9 Little Miss Boom (13) and #11 Pearls In June (16) will settle at or near the rear of the field, dictated by their wide barriers and/or natural racing patterns.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
The rail at +10m for the entire circuit significantly alters the track's dynamics. It creates tighter turns and a shorter run home, further exaggerating the advantage for on-pace runners. Horses that can save ground along the inside are at a distinct advantage. This rail position makes it extremely challenging for backmarkers or those caught wide to loop the field and make up the necessary ground.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
The Soft 5 rating will provide a fair surface with some give. It ensures that stamina will be a factor, especially given the predicted strong tempo. Horses who have shown they can handle soft ground in trials will be at an advantage. A fast pace on soft ground can find out weak horses late, but the track configuration (+10m rail, short straight) may prevent closers from being able to fully capitalize. The inside lanes should be the preferred going early in the day.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The 1200m start at Doomben provides a fair run to the first turn, however, it is not a long, sweeping run. With a strong tempo, horses drawn wide must commit to going forward immediately or risk being posted. The key feature of Doomben is its relatively short 350m straight, which typically advantages horses on or near the pace who can kick at the top of the lane. Making up significant ground from the back is traditionally difficult.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
As a 2-year-old Maiden at set weights, this race is a test of raw ability and tactical advantage, as all runners carry a similar weight (fillies with a 2kg allowance). The high degree of inexperience and reliance on trial form introduces uncertainty. Jockeys' decisions and a horse's ability to handle race-day pressure for the first time are critical variables. The speed map can be less reliable, but the patterns shown in multiple trials are the best guide available.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
The race is set to be run at a genuine to strong tempo, with a battle for the lead between the inside horse #1 Anders' Style and the wide-drawn #5 Quickzou. The combination of this likely pace scenario, the Doomben 1200m setup, and the rail at +10m heavily favours horses drawn inside that can take an economical, trailing position just off the speed. Backmarkers and any runner caught wide without cover will face a monumental task. The race will likely be won or lost based on who gets the most efficient run into the short straight.
✅Most Advantaged
#17 Zarla (2) The map could not be drawn up more perfectly for this horse. From barrier 2, it projects to land in the box seat, enjoying a perfect trail behind a hot speed battle. This allows it to conserve energy on the tight-turning track before being produced with a clear run at the top of the short straight. Its demonstrated trial form on soft ground is another significant positive.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#5 Quickzou (14) Despite showing speed in trials, the barrier is a killer. It will be forced to expend a significant amount of energy to either cross a determined leader from the inside gate or face being caught at least three-wide with no cover. This early effort is highly likely to take its toll at the finish. Other disadvantaged runners due to wide draws include #2 Exodas (12), #9 Little Miss Boom (13), and #14 Hunter's Mate (11).
💰Betting Considerations
The analysis strongly suggests focusing on horses that map to get an economical run in the first half of the field. The predicted high pressure up front creates a vulnerability for the leaders.
- Primary Strategy: Back horses that can sit just off the speed. #17 Zarla is the standout from a mapping perspective and is the logical focus.
- Value Opportunities: Horses drawn low that can settle midfield, such as #18 Ceretti (4) or #6 Rusty Tycoon (3), could represent value. They will get a soft run and if the leaders capitulate, they will be in a position to pounce without having done the early work.
- Risks: Be extremely cautious of runners drawn wide who need to go forward. #5 Quickzou and #2 Exodas appear to be in tactically precarious positions and would need to be a class above their rivals to overcome the map. They represent significant risks.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Anders' Style
Exodas
Melaten
Quickzou
Rusty Tycoon
Lady Tangalooma
Little Miss Boom
Pearls In June
Reconciliate
Hunter's Mate
Zarla
Ceretti
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