Ladbrokes Blackbook Hcp (C3)
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 9 at Doomben
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
The presence of multiple horses with a pattern of leading or pressing forward ensures a strong tempo. The key pressure will come from the wide-drawn leaders who must commit early to cross the field and avoid being trapped wide.
🏃♂️Likely Positions In-Running
🥇Leaders
The lead will be hotly contested. #10 Simply Amazing and #15 Kamariya are the designated speed runners from out wide and will push hard to cross. They will likely be joined by #8 Divine Gem who will use her inside draw to hold a forward position, and potentially #5 Nightcapped who may attempt to kick up from the rails and hold a spot in the leading group.
🏃On-Pace/Handy
This is the ideal position in the race. #3 Kickatinalong (barrier 2) and #7 Flying Shelly (barrier 3) are drawn perfectly to stalk the hot speed. They can take a sit in the box seat or one-out, one-back, conserving energy while the leaders burn theirs.
🏃♂️Midfield
#4 Walsh Bay (barrier 6) and #16 Intrecciato (barrier 5) will likely look for cover in the running line, settling mid-pack. #1 Oceans Of Energy (barrier 9) will be forced to settle midfield, but risks being caught three-wide without cover if unable to slot in.
🐌Backmarkers
#6 Sunny Disposition (barrier 10) and #12 Poutchek (barrier 8) are expected to settle towards the rear of the field. They will be relying on the strong tempo to cause the leaders to tire, creating a path for them to run on late.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
The rail at +10m is a critical factor. This position typically favours horses racing on the pace, as it can be difficult to make up ground from the back, especially if the leaders get a cheap sectional. It significantly disadvantages any horse caught wide without cover, as they are forced to cover a lot of extra ground on the tightened turns. Jockeys will be desperate to find a position with cover, making the early battle for position intense. The inside ground should be the freshest part of the track.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
A Soft 5 track provides a fair racing surface with some cushion. It will not disadvantage most runners, but it will bring any genuine wet-track specialists into the race. The key impact of the soft surface will be on stamina; the strong predicted tempo combined with the forgiving ground will ensure a genuine test at 1350m. Leaders who overdo it early will be vulnerable to strong, fit horses who handle the conditions.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The 1350m start at Doomben provides a fair run to the first turn, which allows horses with speed to cross from wider gates. However, with the rail positioned at +10m, the circumference of the track is reduced and the turns become significantly tighter. This makes being trapped wide particularly detrimental. The Doomben straight is not exceptionally long, so backmarkers need the pace to be genuinely run to have a chance to make up the required ground. A strong pace over this distance will test the stamina of all runners.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
This is a Class 3 Handicap for fillies and mares. At this level, form can be inconsistent, but the presence of several established on-pace runners adds a degree of confidence to the pace prediction. Horses are looking to progress their careers, often leading to aggressive tactics from jockeys trying to find the best possible position for their mount. This competitive nature supports the forecast for a genuinely run race.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
The race sets up to be a high-pressure affair from the outset, dictated by the wide-drawn leaders #10 Simply Amazing and #15 Kamariya. Their need to cross will ensure a strong tempo, which is likely to fatigue them and other leaders late in the race. This scenario creates a significant tactical advantage for horses drawn inside who possess tactical speed, allowing them to take a perfect trailing position behind the speed battle. The +10m rail placement magnifies the disadvantage for any horse caught wide and elevates the importance of securing an economical run. The race will likely be won by a horse who enjoys a soft trail and can produce a strong finish as the leaders tire.
✅Most Advantaged
#7 Flying Shelly (7) Drawn perfectly in barrier 3, she can land in an ideal stalking position, likely getting the run of the race behind a hot speed. Her last-start win at Ipswich showed she can finish powerfully off a handy spot. The strong tempo is exactly what she needs to show her best, and she should be presented at the top of the straight with every chance to run over the top of the tiring leaders.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#10 Simply Amazing (15) Despite her good form, the barrier is a major obstacle. She must use significant energy to cross the field, and if she fails to find the lead or a spot on-pace, she will be trapped wide without cover. This is an extremely low-percentage position at Doomben with the rail out +10m. #15 Kamariya (11) faces a similar predicament, and both represent significant risks given the race map.
💰Betting Considerations
The speed map strongly suggests opposing the wide-drawn leaders, #10 Simply Amazing and #15 Kamariya, who appear vulnerable due to the expected high-pressure tactics required from their barriers. Value lies with horses drawn to get an economical run just off the speed. #7 Flying Shelly profiles as the horse best suited by the race shape and map. #3 Kickatinalong is another who gets a gun run from barrier 2 and can be in the finish. For those looking for value, a horse like #4 Walsh Bay could be the beneficiary if the on-pace runners collapse, as she has shown she can finish off a race strongly. The key is to find a horse that can handle the soft ground and gets the right trail behind a contested lead.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Oceans Of Energy
Kickatinalong
Walsh Bay
Nightcapped
Sunny Disposition
Flying Shelly
Divine Gem
Simply Amazing
Poutchek
Gagnante Enchere
Kamariya
Intrecciato
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