Evergreen Turf (Bm74)
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 7 at Sandown-Hillside
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
The presence of at least two natural front-runners should ensure an honest tempo over this staying journey. They are unlikely to dawdle, setting the race up for the strongest stayer to prevail.
🏃♂️Likely Positions In-Running
🥇Leaders
#7 Karburan is the most probable outright leader. #4 I Am The Empire will be right there, applying pressure and ensuring the pace is honest.
🏃On-Pace/Handy
#8 Trapalanda maps to get a perfect run, settling just behind the leaders. #2 Elsie May and #14 Fisherman's Beach will be compelled to press forward from their wide barriers to find a position in the first four or five, though they risk being caught three-wide without cover.
🏃♂️Midfield
#6 Captain Electric is drawn perfectly in barrier 2 to save ground in a comfortable midfield position. #13 Empress Of The Sun, from gate 11, will likely be encouraged by Jamie Kah to find cover a pair further back than her last couple of starts, settling in the moving line around mid-pack.
🐌Backmarkers
#10 Gottabesavvy and #11 Wuddzz are the two designated backmarkers. They will settle at or near the rear of the field and will be relying on a solid tempo to be able to run on late.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
With the rail out 11m for the entire circuit, the track will play significantly differently than with the rail in the true position. This position often means the track surface closer to the rail has experienced wear from previous meetings. On a Soft 6 surface, this inside section could be chopped up and inferior ground. Jockeys will likely look to angle wider into the straight to find a better racing surface. This can negate the advantage of inside barriers and will favour horses who can sustain a wide run and finish down the middle to outside of the track.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
The official rating of a Soft 6 makes this a genuinely testing staying contest. The 2400m will feel even further, placing a premium on fitness, stamina, and an ability to handle rain-affected going. The genuine tempo on a soft track will make the leaders vulnerable in the final 200m. Horses proven on soft or heavy ground are at a distinct advantage. The conditions are perfect for strong closers to make up significant ground, provided they are not left with an impossible task.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The Sandown-Hillside 2400m course is a true test of stamina. It features a long run down the back straight after the start, allowing runners ample time to find their positions before the sweeping turn into the home straight. The home straight is long and uphill (491m), which provides every horse with a chance to make ground if good enough. A genuine pace will ensure that the finish is a survival of the fittest, favouring strong, dour stayers over those with just a short sprint.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
As a Benchmark 74 Handicap, the race features a field of seasoned, exposed stayers. This generally leads to a more reliable speed map as most runners have established racing patterns. The handicap conditions, with weights spread from 59.0kg down to 52.0kg, could be a factor late. The lighter-weighted horses like #13 Empress Of The Sun (54.5kg) and #14 Fisherman's Beach (52.0kg) will have an advantage in the gruelling conditions over the final stages.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
The race is set up to be a genuine staying test. A solid pace dictated by #7 Karburan and #4 I Am The Empire, combined with the 2400m distance on a Soft 6 track with the rail out 11m, will ensure there are no hiding places. The long, uphill straight and the likelihood of better ground being wider out will advantage strong stayers who can sustain a long run from midfield or further back. Leaders who go too hard will be exposed late, as will any runner forced to do excess work from a wide barrier. The race will likely develop into a challenging grind from the 600m mark, not a tactical sprint home.
✅Most Advantaged
#8 Trapalanda. This horse maps to get the perfect tactical run of the race. He will settle just off a genuine speed, is proven on soft ground, and has the services of Craig Williams who is an expert at timing a run on the Hillside circuit. From his position, he can track the speed and be presented at the top of the long straight with every chance to finish over the top of them.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#2 Elsie May and #14 Fisherman's Beach. Both are drawn very wide (13 and 14). They face the unenviable task of either being snagged back to the rear, which is against their patterns, or pushing forward and risking being caught three-deep with no cover for the entire 2400m journey. The latter scenario is often a recipe for finishing unplaced over this course and distance.
💰Betting Considerations
The analysis points towards horses that can handle the soft ground and are not disadvantaged by the map. #8 Trapalanda appears to have the ideal setup and should be a key contender. Value could be found with the backmarkers like #11 Wuddzz, who will appreciate the genuine tempo and testing conditions, giving him the chance to unleash his strong finish down the outside. It would be a risk to support the leaders, particularly #7 Karburan, given the pressure he will face on a demanding track. A horse like #13 Empress Of The Sun with a light weight and a top jockey in Jamie Kah warrants respect, as she could get a lovely trail into the race and be strong late. Look for runners who have previously won or placed on Soft 6 or worse ground over 2000m+.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Elsie May
I Am The Empire
Captain Electric
Karburan
Trapalanda
Gottabesavvy
Wuddzz
Empress Of The Sun
Fisherman's Beach
Ready for an Edge?
Join our free newsletter for expert analysis and data-backed selections delivered every Wednesday and Saturday.