Keeneland September Yearling Sale Mdn Hcp
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 1 at Warwick Farm
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
The field lacks a dedicated, high-pressure front-runner. Several runners possess tactical speed but none are obligate leaders, suggesting they will be content to take a sit if another horse presses on. The most likely scenario is a controlled tempo set by a horse capitalising on an inside draw.
🏃♂️Likely Positions In-Running
🥇Leaders
No clear leader is apparent. #4 Tambeloa is the most probable leader from the inside gate, aiming for an economical run in front. #1 Kikoira has the speed to be prominent and could share the lead or sit outside it.
🏃On-Pace/Handy
This will be the key tactical group. #2 Indigo Star is drawn perfectly to land in the box seat or one-out, one-back. #12 Torrey Pines can use its low draw (3) to settle handy on the fence. #3 Rach will be attempting to cross from its wide gate and find a position in this group, likely one-off with cover.
🏃♂️Midfield
This section will be populated by #8 Dollars, who maps for a comfortable run from barrier 5. #10 Sleuth typically settles mid-pack and will likely look for cover from barrier 8. From the inside, #11 So Precise will get an economical run but likely settle in the second half of the field on the rail.
🐌Backmarkers
#6 Rasp and #7 Dance With Destiny have established patterns of settling near the rear of the field. They will be detached from the main group early and will rely on a solid tempo to be able to run on.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
With the rail in the True position, the track should play its fairest. There should be no inherent bias towards any specific running line early in the day. Jockeys will likely aim to save ground on the rail around the turn before searching for the best going in the straight. An inside draw is an advantage for horses with enough speed to hold their position, as seen with the map for #4 Tambeloa and #2 Indigo Star.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
The track is rated a Soft 6. This will make the 1600m a genuine test of stamina and brings wet-track credentials to the forefront. Horses that have previously performed well on rain-affected ground hold a distinct advantage. The soft surface may slightly blunt the finishing speed of all runners and could make it more difficult for backmarkers to make up a large deficit if the pace up front is only moderate. Leaders that overdo it will be vulnerable late.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The 1600m start at Warwick Farm provides a straight run of approximately 400m to the first turn. This is a fair starting point that allows horses drawn both inside and middle gates to find their positions without being rushed. The long, sweeping home straight is forgiving and gives every horse its chance, meaning backmarkers are not completely disadvantaged if the pace is genuine and they are good enough to make up the ground.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
As a Maiden Handicap for 2 and 3-year-olds, the form and racing patterns can be less reliable than in races with more seasoned horses. Some runners are still learning and may not conform to their expected map position. The handicap conditions mean weights are relatively compressed, but over a testing 1600m on a soft track, every kilogram can count, potentially favouring those down in the weights if they can see out the trip.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
The race is projected to be run at a moderate tempo, likely controlled by #4 Tambeloa from the inside gate. This sets up a tactical contest where positioning will be crucial. The race will likely develop into a sprint home from the 600m mark. This scenario heavily favours horses that can travel comfortably on or just behind the speed, as they will be poised to accelerate first and make it mathematically difficult for the backmarkers to bridge the gap on a tiring soft surface.
✅Most Advantaged
#2 Indigo Star The map appears perfect for this runner. From barrier 4, James McDonald can place the horse in an ideal on-pace position, either in the box seat or one-one, without spending any extra energy. Given the predicted moderate pace, he will be stalking the leaders and poised to strike at the top of the straight. The horse has proven form on soft ground and looks to get every possible chance.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#3 Rach Drawn in barrier 9, this horse faces a difficult task. The options are to burn energy early to cross and find a forward spot, or to ease back for cover and risk settling further back than ideal and in traffic. Either scenario is suboptimal for a 1600m maiden on soft ground. The backmarkers #6 Rasp and #7 Dance With Destiny are also disadvantaged by the likely moderate tempo, which will not help their cause in running on from the rear.
💰Betting Considerations
- The analysis strongly points towards horses drawn inside that can take up a forward position. #2 Indigo Star and #4 Tambeloa are the primary beneficiaries of the predicted race shape.
- Proven ability on Soft or Heavy ground is a non-negotiable factor and should be weighted heavily in any assessment.
- There is significant risk associated with runners drawn wide, particularly #3 Rach, and the backmarkers #6 Rasp and #7 Dance With Destiny, who need the race to unfold against the predicted pattern to be winning chances.
- Value could potentially lie with a horse like #12 Torrey Pines, who draws well to get an economical midfield run and could be overlooked in favour of the more obvious chances.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Kikoira
Indigo Star
Rach
Tambeloa
Rasp
Dance With Destiny
Dollars
Sleuth
So Precise
Torrey Pines
Ready for an Edge?
Join our free newsletter for expert analysis and data-backed selections delivered every Wednesday and Saturday.