myPlates (Bm72)
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 3 at Warwick Farm
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
The map points towards a moderately run race. In a small field of seven, there is only one designated, aggressive leader. The other on-pace runners are more likely to take a sit rather than engage in a speed battle for the front.
🏃♂️Likely Positions In-Running
🥇Leaders
#5 Heaven Bound is the most probable leader, working across from the widest barrier. #9 Bella Corazon has the speed to hold the front from the inside draw if Heaven Bound is slow to begin, but the more likely scenario is her taking the trail.
🏃On-Pace/Handy
#3 Audrey's Lane is drawn for a perfect run in the box seat (third on the rail). #4 Fairway Star will likely settle one-out, one-back, just off the leaders' heels, in an ideal stalking position.
🏃♂️Midfield
#8 American Starlet maps to settle in the middle of the pack, likely with cover. #6 Autumn Dream will probably be eased from barrier 7 to find a spot in the second half of the small field, looking to get a trail into the race.
🐌Backmarkers
#2 Kind Gesture is the designated backmarker. The form guide is littered with comments like "Dwelt at start" and "Slowly away". This horse will almost certainly be detached at the rear of the field.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
With the rail in the True position, the track should play fairly early in the day. However, on a Soft 6 surface, the inside going can become inferior as the meeting progresses. This could be a slight negative for a horse like #3 Audrey's Lane, who maps to be on the rail in the box seat. Her jockey may need to navigate to slightly wider, firmer ground upon straightening, which could be a critical factor in the final 300m. Runners fanning in the straight will have every chance.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
The Soft 6 rating is a significant factor. It will ensure a true test of stamina over the 1600m and will blunt the acceleration of less-seasoned wet trackers. Horses who can grind out a strong finish and have proven form on rain-affected ground will hold a distinct advantage. The moderate tempo may allow the leader to conserve energy, but the testing ground will make the final 200m feel like 300m. Any horse that is not fully fit or dislikes soft going will struggle to finish the race off.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The Warwick Farm 1600m start provides a fair run from a chute into the first turn, giving horses like #5 Heaven Bound an opportunity to cross without being rushed. The key feature is the long, sweeping home straight. On a fair track, this gives all runners their chance. However, on a testing Soft 6, it becomes a genuine slog. In a moderately run race, on-pace horses can kick for home and be hard to run down, but the long straight also ensures any leader who has overdone it will be found out, bringing swoopers into play if they have the stamina.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
As a Benchmark 72 for fillies and mares, the field is comprised of relatively exposed runners. The small field size of seven often leads to tactical affairs where pace and position are paramount. A moderately run race, as predicted here, is a common outcome in such scenarios, which can make it difficult for backmarkers to make up the required ground.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
This race is likely to be a tactical affair controlled from the front. The moderate tempo will advantage horses racing on or near the pace, who can conserve energy before kicking in the long Warwick Farm straight. The Soft 6 track condition adds a layer of complexity, demanding both tactical speed and genuine stamina. The race will likely develop into a sprint home from the 600m mark, where handling the ground and having the strongest finish will be decisive.
✅Most Advantaged
#9 Bella Corazon (3). She draws perfectly in barrier 3 to land in the first two or three runners without spending a penny. She has proven form on wet ground, is coming off a last-start win, and has the tactical versatility to adapt to however the pace unfolds. Zac Lloyd should be able to position her for a winning run in the straight. #3 Audrey's Lane is similarly advantaged from a map perspective, securing the box seat.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#2 Kind Gesture (2). This horse's racing pattern is a major liability here. In a moderately run race, a backmarker that consistently gives away a start at the barriers will face an insurmountable task to circle the field and run down the leaders on a testing soft track, especially while carrying top weight.
💰Betting Considerations
The speed map strongly favours horses positioned on-pace. The betting focus should be on runners who map to get an economical run near the lead and have proven credentials on soft ground.
- Primary Focus: #9 Bella Corazon and #3 Audrey's Lane map to get the most favourable runs in the race. They represent the highest-percentage plays based on the likely race shape.
- Leader Risk: #5 Heaven Bound could be vulnerable. While she may get the lead, working from the wide gate on a soft track could take its toll late. If she is short in the market, she could represent poor value.
- Value/Exotics: #6 Autumn Dream is a horse that finished powerfully to win last start. If the on-pace runners go too early or fail to handle the ground, she is the one most likely to be charging late and could be included in exotic bets for value.
- Avoid: #2 Kind Gesture is a very low-percentage winning proposition given the predicted race shape and her established racing pattern.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Kind Gesture
Audrey's Lane
Fairway Star
Heaven Bound
Autumn Dream
American Starlet
Bella Corazon
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