TAB (Bm72)

With the rail in the True position, the track should play fairly. It provides the most room for all runners and typically doesn't present an extreme bias. However, it still rewards horses drawn inside gates who can hold their position, as they are guaranteed the most economical run. For a 2200m race, saving ground is crucial, and those drawn low have a distinct advantage over runners who may be forced to cover extra ground from wider alleys.

The track is rated a Soft 6. Over a 2200m trip, this will make the race a genuine test of stamina. Horses with proven form on rain-affected ground will be significantly advantaged. The surface will blunt the acceleration of some runners and bring strong, grinding stayers into the race. If the track deteriorates further, the inside section could chop up, potentially favouring horses who can make their runs slightly wider in the straight to find better ground. The soft going will make it particularly tough for any horse caught wide without cover.

The 2200m start at Warwick Farm provides a long run down the back straight before the first significant turn. This gives horses and jockeys ample opportunity to find a position. However, the key feature of Warwick Farm is its relatively short home straight of approximately 320m. This configuration typically favours horses that are on-pace or can make a sustained run from the 600m mark, as it can be very difficult for genuine backmarkers to make up a large deficit in the short run to the line.

As a Benchmark 72 Handicap, the weight spread is a key factor. Top-weight #1 Naval Commission carries 61.5kg, a significant impost over this distance on soft ground, while a runner like #14 Sacro Catino gets in on the minimum of 55.0kg. This 6.5kg spread can be the difference-maker late in the race, giving the lightly-weighted, in-form horses a strong chance against their higher-rated rivals.