Glen Fraser Mdn
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 2 at Bunbury Fibre Sand
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
The map is loaded with genuine speed influences drawn across the field, virtually guaranteeing a strong tempo. The short 950m distance encourages horses to be aggressive early to secure a position. A significant speed battle is anticipated.
🏃♂️Likely Positions In-Running
🥇Leaders
A likely three-way contest for the lead. #5 Nistirith and #4 Grey Revolution have the inside draws to kick up and duel for control. #2 Le Beau will be forced to push across from its wide gate and will likely sit outside the lead, potentially three-wide if it can't cross.
🏃On-Pace/Handy
This is the golden position in this race. #1 Hell's Citi is drawn perfectly in barrier 1 to take the box seat trail directly behind the speed battle. #3 Extreme Ruler and #9 Pariah's Thanks draw well enough (gates 5 and 4) to settle one-off-the-rail just behind the leaders, receiving a lovely run into the race.
🏃♂️Midfield
#10 So Much Serenity, if it jumps cleanly, may try to slide across from gate 9 but risks being caught wide in a midfield position. #6 Circus Angel and #8 My Testimony are expected to settle mid-pack, likely needing some luck to find a position with cover.
🐌Backmarkers
#11 Ain'tnocureforlove is a stayer resuming over a completely unsuitable distance and will be outpaced, settling last. #7 Hello Pretty, from the outside gate with limited exposed speed, is also expected to be at or near the tail of the field.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
With the rail in the True position, the track should play fairly. However, on a tight circuit like this, an inside draw remains a distinct advantage. It allows horses to save ground around the bend, which is critical in a 950m dash. Leaders and on-pace runners who can hold the rail or a position one-off are heavily favoured over those forced to cover extra ground.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
The track is rated a Good 3, meaning the Fibre Sand surface will be fast and firm. This will favour pure speed and horses who can travel comfortably on the pace. Kickback will be a major factor; horses unused to the surface or those settling back in the field may resent the sand in their face and fail to run on. There is a significant advantage for runners with proven form on this specific surface.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The Bunbury Fibre Sand track over 950m is a highly specialized circuit. It's a very short, sharp sprint where early speed and tactical position are paramount. The turns are tight, and the run to the first bend isn't long, meaning horses drawn wide who want to be on-pace must expend significant energy to cross over. The surface itself can produce significant kickback, making it difficult for horses who settle in the second half of the field to run on through the flying sand.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
This is a Maiden race, which inherently brings a level of unpredictability. Several runners are lightly raced, and their racing patterns are not yet fully established. Horses like #10 So Much Serenity have shown speed in trials but failed to produce it on race day due to a poor start. Jockey intent in a field of inexperienced horses can often override the expected map. The set-weight conditions mean all horses carry weight based on age and sex, which gives no advantage to the more experienced runners.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
The combination of multiple leaders, a wide-drawn speed influence (#2 Le Beau), and a short sprint on a specialist track points to a high-pressure race. The intense speed battle up front is likely to compromise the chances of those involved. This scenario sets the race up perfectly for a horse with tactical speed that can take a sit just behind the leaders, conserving energy before pouncing in the straight. The kickback and track configuration make it extremely difficult for midfield runners and almost impossible for backmarkers. The race will likely be won or lost based on which horse gets the most economical run in the first 400m.
✅Most Advantaged
#1 Hell's Citi The map could not have fallen better for this horse. It drops back from longer distances where it has struggled to finish off, but possesses the necessary tactical speed for this trip. From barrier 1, it is guaranteed an energy-saving run in the box seat, stalking a hot speed. Jockey Brayden Gaerth can sit patiently on the rail, avoid the kickback, and present his horse at the top of the straight as the leaders begin to tire.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#2 Le Beau This horse faces a monumental task. Its natural racing pattern is to go forward, but from barrier 10, it will have to burn a significant amount of fuel to cross at least two other designated leaders drawn inside. The most likely scenario is being posted three or four wide without cover, a position from which it is almost impossible to win over this track and distance.
💰Betting Considerations
The analysis strongly suggests focusing on horses drawn to get a stalking, on-pace run. #1 Hell's Citi is the clear standout from a tactical perspective and should be given significant consideration. The key risk is whether it can produce a sharp enough turn of foot dropping back so far in distance. Value could be found with #3 Extreme Ruler and #9 Pariah's Thanks, who are also drawn to get favourable runs just off the speed. A bet against #2 Le Beau is a high-percentage play due to the extreme map disadvantage. The backmarkers, #7 Hello Pretty and #11 Ain'tnocureforlove, can be safely excluded from all calculations. Horses with positive trials on synthetic or sand surfaces, like #10 So Much Serenity, warrant a second look but remain risky due to their barriers and inexperience.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Hell's Citi
Le Beau
Extreme Ruler
Grey Revolution
Nistirith
Circus Angel
Hello Pretty
My Testimony
Pariah's Thanks
So Much Serenity
Ain'tnocureforlove
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