The Ipswich Tribune (Bm70)
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 8 at Ipswich
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
The presence of multiple runners with natural early speed drawn wide will ensure a legitimate tempo. The pressure will be on from the outset as they try to cross and secure a position before the first turn.
🏃♂️Likely Positions In-Running
🥇Leaders
Expect a strong contest for the lead. #14 In Great Spirit has the box seat to lead from the inside gate. #4 What A Doozy and #6 Diamond Epic will be forced to press forward from their wide alleys and will likely challenge for the lead or sit parked outside the speed.
🏃On-Pace/Handy
#1 Grammar Lad will have to work across from barrier 9 but has the tactical speed to settle in the first four or five, likely one-off with cover. #10 Azafran from gate 7 can be ridden tactically to sit just off the main speed battle.
🏃♂️Midfield
#12 Scruffy from the inside gate will aim to use the draw but may lack the sharp early speed, likely settling midfield on the rail. #13 Wantsomemoreofit (gate 6) and #7 Ally (gate 8) are expected to find positions in the middle of the pack with cover.
🐌Backmarkers
#2 Joppa Lane consistently settles back in the field and will likely be near the rear, aiming to save ground from barrier 4. #9 Avior, drawn off the track in 14, will almost certainly be snagged to the tail of the field to find a position.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
With the rail out a significant +10m for the entire circuit, the track will play even tighter. This rail position typically favours on-pace runners who can save ground along the fence and dictate terms. It makes it extremely challenging for horses coming from the back or those caught wide, as they have more ground to cover on the turns. The effective width of the track is reduced, which can lead to traffic issues for those in the pack trying to find a run.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
A Soft 6 rating indicates the ground will be testing and will bring stamina into the equation, especially over the final 200m. The genuine pace predicted will make this a gruelling 1200m, sorting out those who do not handle rain-affected going. Horses that have worked hard early will be vulnerable late. Any bias will likely favour horses finding the best ground, which with the rail at +10m might not be hard on the fence, but being wide will still be a disadvantage due to the extra distance covered on the soft surface.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The 1200m start at Ipswich features a notoriously short run to the first, tight turn. This configuration heavily penalises horses drawn wide, as they must expend significant energy to cross the field or risk being trapped deep for the entire race. The relatively short 300m straight further advantages horses who are on-pace and can kick for home off the bend, making it difficult for backmarkers to make up extensive ground.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
As a Benchmark 70 Handicap for 3-year-olds, the race features developing horses who can be inconsistent. The handicap conditions mean weights are relatively compressed, but the 52.0kg carried by #12 Scruffy could be a notable advantage in the testing, soft conditions if the horse gets a favourable run. The competitive nature of a BM70 ensures jockeys will be pushing for tactical advantages early, reinforcing the likelihood of a genuinely run race.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
The combination of a genuine pace, the Ipswich 1200m chute, a +10m rail, and a Soft 6 track creates a highly specific tactical scenario. Success will be heavily dependent on securing an advantageous position early without being forced into a speed duel or being caught wide. The race shape overwhelmingly favours horses drawn inside that possess tactical speed and can handle the wet conditions. Backmarkers face a formidable task, needing the pace to collapse and clear runs to materialise, both of which are unlikely given the track configuration. The race will likely be won by a horse positioned in the first four at the home turn.
✅Most Advantaged
#14 In Great Spirit (3) This horse's map is near-perfect. From barrier 3, it can jump straight into a leading or box-seat position without spending excess energy. This allows it to conserve fuel for the short, testing home straight on the soft ground. The +10m rail enhances the advantage of its inside draw and on-pace pattern.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#6 Diamond Epic (12) and #4 What A Doozy (11). Both are drawn extremely wide and their forward-going patterns put them in a desperate situation. They must either commit to an energy-sapping charge to find the front or risk being caught three or four wide without cover, a virtual impossibility to win from under these conditions. #9 Avior (14) is also severely disadvantaged, as the outside gate forces it to the rear of the field, from where making up ground will be exceptionally difficult.
💰Betting Considerations
The analysis strongly suggests focusing on on-pace runners drawn in the inside half of the field. These runners have a significant tactical advantage that cannot be overstated at this track and distance with the rail out.
- Key Profile: Look for horses drawn barriers 1-7 with proven on-pace patterns and demonstrated form on soft or heavy tracks.
- High Risk: The speed horses drawn wide, #4 What A Doozy and #6 Diamond Epic, represent significant risks. Despite their ability, their map is against them, and they are likely to be under the odds.
- Value Potential: A horse like #10 Azafran (7) could represent value. It is drawn to get a potentially perfect run tracking the speed battle from a midfield gate and could be the one to benefit if the leaders overdo it. #1 Grammar Lad (9) is another to consider if it can find a spot with cover early.
- Primary Strategy: Bet against the wide-drawn speed and backmarkers. The race is set up for #14 In Great Spirit to get every possible chance, making it a prime candidate for all bet types.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Grammar Lad
Joppa Lane
What A Doozy
Diamond Epic
Ally
Avior
Azafran
Scruffy
Wantsomemoreofit
In Great Spirit
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