Laurels Function Centre Mdn Plate
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 4 at Sale
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
This race lacks a designated, high-pressure leader. Over the 2238m staying distance, jockeys are naturally inclined to conserve energy, especially on a Soft 7 track. The most likely scenario is a tactical affair where one of the horses from an inside barrier is allowed to dictate terms at a leisurely tempo.
🏃♂️Likely Positions In-Running
🥇Leaders
#1 Clydebank Robber is the most probable leader from the ideal draw. He can dictate terms. #8 Izola has the speed to sit alongside or press the lead if desired.
🏃On-Pace/Handy
#5 Siege Perilous will work across to find a spot in the first four, likely one off the fence. #8 Izola will settle here if not challenging for the lead. #3 Marquisard could use the inside draw to hold a position just behind the speed, potentially in the box seat.
🏃♂️Midfield
This group will likely settle in the main pack, seeking cover. It includes the unraced #2 Cowarrie, #10 Teleconference, and potentially #11 Windy Peak if he can find a spot from his awkward gate.
🐌Backmarkers
A significant portion of the field is likely to settle at the rear, primarily due to wide draws and established racing patterns. This includes #6 Willie Sunshine (13), #7 Girl From Oz (10), #9 Shindy (12), and #12 Smart Madam (14). They will be relying on the pace to break down late.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
With the rail out 6m, the track becomes slightly tighter, and finding a position closer to the pace can be an advantage. It makes the task for backmarkers, who may have to loop the field, more difficult as they cover extra ground. On a Soft 7, the inside section of the track may be inferior ground by this stage of the meeting, potentially leading jockeys to search for better going wider out in the straight.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
The official Soft 7 rating is a critical factor. This will ensure a true staying test and will significantly advantage horses with proven wet track credentials. The pace will be slower than on a dry surface, placing a premium on stamina and race fitness. Horses unable to handle the ground will struggle to make an impact, regardless of their position in the run. Backmarkers will find it difficult to make up significant ground on tiring leaders in the holding conditions.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The 2238m start at Sale provides a long run down the back straight, giving runners ample time to find their positions without a mad scramble for the first turn. This further supports the notion of a moderately run race. The long Sale home straight typically gives all runners a chance, but on a Soft 7 surface and with a potentially slow pace, it can turn into a difficult, grinding sprint home, favouring those who have saved energy on or near the speed. Stamina will be paramount.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
As a Maiden Plate, the form is inherently unreliable, and the speed map is subject to change based on inexperienced horses and tactical decisions. Horses can over-race or fail to settle, which could unexpectedly alter the tempo. The set-weights condition means all runners compete on a level playing field, removing any weight-related advantages or disadvantages.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
The race is overwhelmingly likely to be run at a slow to moderate tempo, dictated by a horse from an inside draw. This race shape creates a distinct tactical advantage for on-pace runners and a significant disadvantage for those who settle in the rear. The Soft 7 track will ensure that only strong, fit horses who handle the conditions will be finishing off the race. The race will likely develop into a sprint home from the 600m mark, where position and acceleration will be key.
✅Most Advantaged
#1 Clydebank Robber His profile aligns perfectly with the predicted race shape. From barrier 3, he has the tactical versatility to lead unopposed or take a perfect trail in the box seat. He has proven form on soft ground and at this distance range. The slow pace scenario allows him to conserve maximum energy for the final sprint, giving him every conceivable chance.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#6 Willie Sunshine (13) & #9 Shindy (12) Both horses have a pattern of getting back in the field. From their wide barriers, they will be forced to settle near the tail. In a slowly run race on a testing Soft 7 track, they will be left with an almost impossible task to loop the field and make up the required ground on the leaders who have had a much easier run. #7 Girl From Oz (10) and #12 Smart Madam (14) face a similar difficult map.
💰Betting Considerations
The analysis strongly suggests focusing on horses capable of settling in the first four or five positions. The predicted slow pace makes backmarkers extremely risky propositions, and they should be avoided unless there is a significant price discrepancy. Proven form on soft or heavy tracks is a non-negotiable prerequisite. #1 Clydebank Robber and #5 Siege Perilous appear to map for the best runs in transit. #8 Izola is another who could land in a forward spot from a good draw and be in the finish. The first starter, #2 Cowarrie, adds an element of the unknown and is best assessed on market intelligence.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Clydebank Robber
Cowarrie
Marquisard
Siege Perilous
Willie Sunshine
Girl From Oz
Izola
Shindy
Teleconference
Windy Peak
Smart Madam
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