Carlton Draught (Bm64)
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 5 at Sale
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
There is a distinct lack of a designated, high-pressure leader in this field over a staying trip. The primary speed influences are drawn wide, which complicates the early tempo. Jockeys will be hesitant to burn excessive energy early over 2238m on a Soft 7 track. This will likely lead to a period of sorting out positions in the first 600m, before the pace steadies to a moderate tempo through the middle stages. - **#11 Stella Cantante:** Drawn in barrier 14, this horse has shown on-pace tendencies. To avoid being trapped wide, the jockey will have to press forward, making them a likely candidate to either lead or sit outside the leader. - **#3 Golden Hips:** Consistently settles handy but is drawn wide in barrier 11. Will also need to push forward to find a position near the speed, adding to the early pressure. - **#1 The Storyteller:** From the ideal barrier 3, has the versatility to take up the running if the pace is slow, as demonstrated in past wins. Will likely hold a prominent spot.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
With the rail out 6m for the entire circuit, the track will play somewhat tighter on the turns. This can make it more difficult for horses back and wide to make a sweeping run. It typically advantages horses who can travel on or near the pace, saving ground along the inside section of the course. The fresh ground may offer a uniform surface, but the inside lanes could be subject to wear by this stage of the meeting.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
The Soft 7 rating is critical. The 2238m journey will feel significantly longer, placing a premium on genuine stamina and proven wet-track capability. Horses that struggle on rain-affected ground will be found out. The pace will naturally be more conservative as jockeys aim to conserve energy for the testing final straight. There is a risk that the inside part of the track could become chopped up, potentially favouring horses who can peel out to find slightly better ground in the home straight.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The 2238m start at Sale provides a long run down the back straight before the first significant turn. This gives horses drawn wide a chance to find a position, but it requires sustained effort. Forcing the issue from gates 11, 13, 14, and 15 will be a significant energy expenditure. The long home straight at Sale gives runners from off the pace a chance, but on a Soft 7 track, and with a likely moderate tempo, making up excessive ground will be a difficult task. The race will be a true test of stamina.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
This is a Benchmark 64 handicap, featuring a field of largely exposed stayers. The top weight, #1 The Storyteller, carries a significant 62.0kg. On a Soft 7 track, this impost will be a major test of his stamina in the final 200m, especially against rivals with 5-10kg less to carry. The established racing patterns in this class are generally reliable, adding confidence to the speed map.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
The race is likely to be run at a moderate tempo, with the key tactical phase being the first 600m as wide-drawn horses try to find positions. This projects to be a staying test decided by a sustained run from the home turn rather than a sit-and-sprint. Stamina, wet track handling, and an economical run in transit will be the deciding factors. The moderate pace will likely disadvantage the genuine backmarker, making it difficult to loop the field on a tiring track. The race will likely develop into a sprint home from the 600m mark.
✅Most Advantaged
#1 The Storyteller (1) is mapped for a perfect trip. From barrier 3, Daniel Stackhouse can elect to lead at a slow pace or take a sit directly behind the speed. His recent win came on a Heavy 8 over this course and distance, confirming his suitability to the conditions. While the 62.0kg is a burden, his tactical position provides a significant advantage that may be enough to offset the weight.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#5 Clinched (15) faces a monumental task. As a natural backmarker drawn the extreme outside gate, he will settle last and likely be forced wide. In a moderately run race on a Soft 7, making up the required ground against the entire field will be almost impossible without a complete pace collapse. #11 Stella Cantante (14) and #3 Golden Hips (11) are also at a disadvantage due to their wide barriers, risking a tough run without cover.
💰Betting Considerations
- The map strongly suggests focusing on horses with proven soft/heavy track form that have drawn to receive an economical run (barriers 1-7).
- #1 The Storyteller is the horse with the most favourable map, but the big weight is a risk factor to weigh up.
- #7 Engeline presents as a strong tactical chance. From barrier 5 with a good jockey, she should secure a perfect run just off the speed and has wet track form. She gets weight relief from the top weight and is positioned to strike.
- Extreme caution is advised for horses drawn in the double-digit barriers, especially the backmarker #5 Clinched, who appears to be in a hopeless position from a map perspective. They will require significant luck and/or a pace scenario that is contrary to this analysis.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
The Storyteller
West Indies
Golden Hips
Perfetto
Clinched
Mr Tadashi
Engeline
Nothingelsematters
Thundering Falcon
In Your Hands
Stella Cantante
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