Ladbrokes Form Genius (Bm64)
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 7 at Sale
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
The map is defined by a designated leader, #1 I Am War, who almost exclusively races in front. However, it is drawn very wide in barrier 12 and will be forced to burn early energy to cross and lead. Significant pressure is expected to come from other on-pace runners drawn wide, namely #8 Walk Of Fame (13) and #2 Battaglia (14), who must press forward to avoid being caught deep. #13 Papal Army (9) also has a forward pattern and is likely to push on. This combination of a committed leader and multiple on-pacers drawn wide almost guarantees a solidly run race from the outset.
🏃♂️Likely Positions In-Running
🥇Leaders
#1 I Am War is the most probable leader but will have to work to get there from gate 12. #13 Papal Army could potentially sit outside it if it shows enough early speed.
🏃On-Pace/Handy
#7 Vianarra is drawn perfectly in barrier 2 to take the box-seat run behind the leaders. #8 Walk Of Fame and #2 Battaglia will press forward from their wide gates and risk being caught three-wide on the speed if they cannot slot in.
🏃♂️Midfield
A number of runners are set to receive ideal runs. #14 Vistetto (6), #12 Chambers Bay (1) and #9 Amaretto Sour (3) are all drawn to settle in comfortable midfield positions with cover, saving ground along the rail. From the extreme outside gate (15), #3 Justdoit will be forced to slot in mid-pack, likely caught wide but with cover.
🐌Backmarkers
#4 Grinzinger Earl has a history of being slow away and will settle at or near the rear of the field from barrier 4. #11 Shezasmokey also maps to get back and will likely be in the last few runners.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
With the rail out 6m for the entire circuit, the track will play somewhat tighter. This can make it more difficult for horses drawn wide to find a position, potentially leaving them exposed. Later in the day on a soft track, the ground closer to the fence can become worn. This may lead jockeys to steer towards the centre of the track in the straight, potentially advantaging horses who are peeling out wide over those who are held up on the inside.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
The official track rating of a Soft 7 indicates the ground will be genuinely rain-affected and demanding. This will significantly test the stamina of all runners, particularly those involved in the early speed battle. The strong tempo combined with the soft ground will make the 1423m feel more like a mile. Horses with proven form on wet tracks will be at a distinct advantage, while those who need a firm surface will struggle. The conditions are likely to favour strong finishers over pure speed horses. Note that #11 Shezasmokey was reported to have "failed to handle going" on a Soft 7 last start, a major concern.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The 1423m start at Sale offers a fair run of approximately 400m to the first turn. This gives horses drawn wide, like #1 I Am War and #8 Walk Of Fame, a chance to cross over, but they will be doing work to achieve it. The long 400m home straight is a key feature of the Sale track; it provides ample opportunity for backmarkers to make up ground, especially if the predicted strong early pace materialises and the leaders begin to tire late.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
As a Benchmark 64 Handicap, the race features a spread of weights. The top weight, #1 I Am War, is burdened with 62.5kg. Attempting to lead from a wide barrier at a strong pace on a Soft 7 track with this weight is an extremely difficult task and will make it highly vulnerable in the concluding stages. The handicap conditions give a significant advantage to lighter-weighted horses who can handle the conditions.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
The race is forecast to be run at a genuine to strong tempo, set by #1 I Am War under pressure from other on-pacers drawn wide. This setup, combined with the demanding Soft 7 track, should favour horses that can obtain an economical run in transit and possess a strong finish. The long Sale straight will give every horse its chance, but the pace scenario strongly suggests that runners sitting just off the speed or coming from midfield will be in the prime position to strike as the leaders tire.
✅Most Advantaged
#7 Vianarra (7) maps for a perfect race. From barrier 2, Craig Newitt can have this horse settled in the box seat, doing no work while a strong pace unfolds ahead. It has demonstrated proficiency on soft ground and the race shape gives it an ideal opportunity to produce a winning finish.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#1 I Am War (1) faces an insurmountable task. The combination of a huge weight (62.5kg), a wide barrier (12), a high-pressure pace scenario, and a taxing Soft 7 track creates a perfect storm of negative factors. Runners like #8 Walk Of Fame (13) and #2 Battaglia (14) are also disadvantaged by their wide draws, as they will likely be forced to cover extra ground throughout.
💰Betting Considerations
The analysis points towards opposing the horses involved in the early speed battle, especially those drawn wide and carrying weight. The key is to identify runners who map for an economical run and have proven credentials on wet ground. #7 Vianarra is the standout on the map and should get every possible chance. For value, a strong closer like #4 Grinzinger Earl could be considered; it will be a long way back but won on a Soft 7 last start and will appreciate the fast tempo up front, allowing it to run on strongly down the long straight. Horses drawn for soft runs like #14 Vistetto and #12 Chambers Bay also warrant consideration if they handle the ground.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
I Am War
Battaglia
Justdoit
Grinzinger Earl
Vianarra
Walk Of Fame
Amaretto Sour
Shezasmokey
Chambers Bay
Papal Army
Vistetto
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