Farmer Jack's Supermarket (Bm56+)
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 2 at Carnarvon
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
The presence of two natural leaders drawn in contrasting barriers ensures a solid tempo. #7 Talkaboutyou will be keen to use the inside barrier to its advantage and hold a forward position, while #3 Choice Bid has demonstrated the early speed to press forward from a wider gate. The inclusion of #2 Cash Flow, who can be keen and races on-pace, will add further pressure and ensure the leaders cannot get a cheap sectional. This setup should provide an honest gallop from the outset.
🏃♂️Likely Positions In-Running
🥇Leaders
The lead will be contested by #7 Talkaboutyou from the rails and #3 Choice Bid pushing forward from out wide. It is most likely that #7 Talkaboutyou holds the fence, forcing #3 Choice Bid to work and sit outside the lead.
🏃On-Pace/Handy
#2 Cash Flow is drawn ideally to land in the box seat (1x1) or just behind the leading pair. #6 War Tactics will use the good draw in barrier 3 to take a perfect trail with cover, just off the speed, poised to strike.
🏃♂️Midfield
#1 Ein Stein is expected to settle in a comfortable midfield position from its middle draw. #4 Weld, who is often slowly away, will likely use the inside gate to settle mid-pack on the rail, saving ground.
🐌Backmarkers
#5 Sorais lacks early speed and will settle towards the rear of the field as is its custom. #8 Lathams Wish, dropping back significantly in distance from a wide barrier, is the natural backmarker and will be ridden for luck from the tail of the field.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
With the rail in the True position, the track should play fairly without a specific bias. The inside path is the shortest way home, providing a tangible advantage to horses drawn low who can hold their position, such as #7 Talkaboutyou and #6 War Tactics. Runners caught wide without cover will be at a significant disadvantage, a potential risk for #3 Choice Bid.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
A Good 3 rating on the Carnarvon sand surface means conditions will be fast and firm. The surface promotes on-pace runners who can handle the kickback and maintain a strong gallop. There is no weather forecast to suggest any change, so the track will play true to its typical pattern, making it tough for backmarkers to make a significant impact.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The 1400m start at Carnarvon offers a fair run into the first turn, allowing horses with gate speed to find a position. However, the oiled sand surface can be demanding and often favours horses racing on or near the pace. Making up excessive ground from the back in the home straight can be a difficult task unless the pace has been unsustainable. Horses with proven form on this unique surface hold a distinct advantage.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
As a BM56+ Handicap, the race features a wide weight spread, from 60.0kg on #1 Ein Stein down to 52.0kg on #8 Lathams Wish. This gives lighter-weighted horses an opportunity if they are good enough. In these provincial grade races, established racing patterns are often reliable, and on-pace runners who can control the tempo frequently perform well.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
The map points to a genuinely run race, which will test the stamina of all runners over the 1400m. The contest for the lead between #7 Talkaboutyou and #3 Choice Bid is the key dynamic. The advantage lies with #7 Talkaboutyou from the inside gate. This tempo should give every horse its chance, but the on-pace runners who get an economical run, specifically #6 War Tactics and #2 Cash Flow, are positioned perfectly to benefit. Backmarkers face a formidable task on this track with this likely race shape. The winner is highly likely to come from the first half of the field turning for home.
✅Most Advantaged
#7 Talkaboutyou (1) The combination of the inside barrier, its natural front-running style, and proven form at the track and distance gives it a major tactical edge. It can dictate terms or take a sit, saving crucial energy for the home straight.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#8 Lathams Wish (8) This horse faces multiple hurdles. It is dropping back sharply in trip from staying distances, which is a difficult task. The wide barrier will force it to the rear of the field on a track that favours forward-positioned runners. It will need a pace collapse to feature. #3 Choice Bid (7) is also at a disadvantage, as it will have to burn energy early from a wide gate to contest the lead and risks being caught wide.
💰Betting Considerations
Strategic focus should be on runners mapped to be on-pace or taking a sit just behind the speed. The race shape strongly favours those in the first four positions.
- #7 Talkaboutyou and #6 War Tactics are positioned for ideal runs due to their low barriers and tactical speed. They represent the most likely winning profiles based on the map.
- #2 Cash Flow is a high-risk, high-reward proposition. If it settles kindly behind the speed, it is a major threat. However, its tendency to over-race could see it undo its own chances.
- Caution is advised for the backmarkers #5 Sorais and #8 Lathams Wish, as the likely race dynamics and track profile are heavily against them.
- #3 Choice Bid could offer value if you believe it can cross and lead without spending too much petrol, but it faces a difficult task and could easily be a non-factor if caught wide.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Ein Stein
Cash Flow
Choice Bid
Weld
Sorais
War Tactics
Talkaboutyou
Lathams Wish
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