Ray White Carnarvon Hcp (C1)
Speed analysis and sectional breakdown for Race 4 at Carnarvon
🏁Race Details
🏁Speed Map Visualisation
Predicted race positioning and tactical setup
⏱️Pace Analysis
The map indicates a solid and potentially contested tempo. There are multiple runners with a history of leading or pressing forward. The light weight and recent tactics of Run Teddy Run suggest they will push on, while Matsoka's natural pattern is to lead. Sweet Eyes, coming off an all-the-way win, is also likely to be prominent, ensuring there is no easy lead available.
🏃♂️Likely Positions In-Running
🥇Leaders
Expect a contest for the front between #10 Run Teddy Run (from 7) and #3 Matsoka (from 4). #5 Sweet Eyes (from 6) will likely be pushing up to sit just off them, potentially three-wide early if unable to slot in.
🏃On-Pace/Handy
This race sets up perfectly for #4 Kunapipi to take the box seat from barrier 2, stalking the leaders. #6 Image Of Pro will use the inside alley (1) to hold a position on the fence, a few lengths off the lead.
🏃♂️Midfield
#1 Dream Illusion is drawn awkwardly in 9 and will likely be forced to settle mid-pack, possibly caught wide without cover. #2 Jiddo (8) and #9 Rosa Ballerina (3) are expected to find positions in the main pack, with Rosa Ballerina having the advantage of a better draw to save ground.
🐌Backmarkers
#8 Long Wait (5) will likely settle towards the rear as is its pattern, despite the decent barrier. #7 Jet Power is a natural backmarker and the wide gate (10) cements its position at or near the tail of the field.
🛤️Rail Position Impact
With the rail in the True position, the inside section of the track is generally the desired place to be, especially early in the meeting before it chops up. This provides a distinct advantage to horses drawn low who possess enough tactical speed to hold their position, such as #4 Kunapipi and #6 Image Of Pro. Runners caught wide will be doing extra work on the deeper parts of the sand track.
🌦️Track Condition & Weather
A Good 3 rating on a sand track indicates a relatively firm and fast surface. This will suit front-runners if they can establish an uncontested lead, but the predicted genuine tempo may negate this. The firm surface can produce significant kickback, making it a difficult task for backmarkers who will need clear running lines and a powerful finish to run through it. The conditions are unlikely to favour any particular horse but will make the task harder for those settling at the rear.
📏Track & Distance Factors
The 1600m start at Carnarvon provides a fair run to the first turn, allowing horses drawn wide with speed (like Run Teddy Run) a chance to cross. However, Carnarvon is a sand-based track which typically favours horses racing on or near the speed. Making up significant ground from the back can be difficult due to surface kickback and the energy required to sustain a long run. The mile distance will test the stamina of the leaders if they overcook it early.
🏁Race Conditions Impact
This is a Class 1 Handicap, meaning the field is comprised of horses still learning their trade, which can lead to form and tactical inconsistencies. The weight spread from 59.0kg down to 52.0kg is significant. A lightweight runner with speed like #10 Run Teddy Run (52.0kg) can be hard to run down if they get their own way, but the genuine pace predicted will make it a true test of their class and stamina.
🧠Tactical Insight & Strategic Analysis
The race is likely to be run at a genuine tempo, set by #10 Run Teddy Run and #3 Matsoka, with pressure from #5 Sweet Eyes. This tempo on a sand track will make it difficult for backmarkers to make up the required ground through the kickback. The race shape strongly favours runners who can sit just behind the speed battle, conserve energy, and present in the straight. The most advantageous position appears to be the box seat or one-out-one-back.
✅Most Advantaged
#4 Kunapipi has the ideal map. From barrier 2, jockey Austin Galati can elect to sit in the box seat directly behind the speed duel. This horse has proven form on the track, including a win when sitting on-pace, and gets the perfect run to pounce on the tiring leaders in the straight.
❌Most Disadvantaged
#7 Jet Power faces a monumental task. As a natural backmarker drawn the widest gate (10), it will be last and facing a wall of sand kickback. Making up ground will be extremely difficult given the track and pace scenario. #1 Dream Illusion is also in a precarious position from barrier 9, facing the prospect of being trapped wide without cover in midfield.
💰Betting Considerations
- Primary Consideration: #4 Kunapipi maps for a perfect, economical run and should be given strong consideration. The race sets up ideally for its racing pattern.
- Value/Risk: The leaders (#3 Matsoka, #10 Run Teddy Run, #5 Sweet Eyes) are at risk of a speed battle that could leave them vulnerable late. Betting on any one of them to win requires confidence they can out-tough the others up front.
- Lay Candidates: Backmarkers such as #7 Jet Power and #8 Long Wait are tactically disadvantaged by the likely race shape and track characteristics. They represent a significant risk and would need the pace to completely collapse to feature.
Important: A Note on AI Analysis
Our AI Speedmap Summaries are the result of extensive testing and data analysis. However, it's important to remember that AI models can sometimes make assumptions about horses, jockeys, or race conditions that may not be perfectly accurate.
Please use this information as a guide, not as definitive advice. As with any speed map, if the underlying pace prediction does not unfold as expected, the subsequent analysis may also be affected. Always combine this analysis with your own judgement and research.
🐎Individual Runner Analysis
Detailed breakdown of each horse's chances and tactical positioning
Dream Illusion
Jiddo
Matsoka
Kunapipi
Sweet Eyes
Image Of Pro
Jet Power
Long Wait
Rosa Ballerina
Run Teddy Run
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